Circle shares tap $90 as Bernstein sees ‘clear divergence from crypto,’ Mizuho flags Polymarket boost

Shares of Circle (CRCL) briefly climbed above $90 on Thursday, marking their highest level since mid-November, as analysts at Bernstein and Mizuho weighed in following the company’s fourth-quarter beat.

The stock has since settled to around $87, extending gains from Wednesday’s roughly 30% post-earnings surge.

In a note published Thursday, Bernstein reiterated its "outperform" rating and $190 price target, calling the quarter a “clear divergence from crypto” as Circle’s revenue and adjusted EBITDA both exceeded expectations.

Bernstein pointed to stronger transaction revenue, including blockchain rewards tied to Circle’s role as a super validator on the Canton network and a growing share of USDC held directly on Circle’s own platform, which rose to 17% of total supply in the fourth quarter, up from 14% in the third quarter. Circle expects USDC in circulation to continue compounding at 40% annually and sees other revenue expanding to as much as $170 million in 2026, up from $110 million in 2025.

While Bernstein focused on margin durability and product expansion, including Arc, Circle Payments Network, and new “agentic payments” capabilities, Mizuho struck a more measured tone.

Polymarket boost and agentic commerce

Mizuho analysts Dan Dolev and Alexander Jenkins raised their price target to $90 from $77 but maintained a"neutral" rating.

The firm said sentiment has improved in part due to growing activity on prediction markets such as Polymarket, which management cited as a meaningful contributor to recent USDC growth. Mizuho described prediction markets as a "visible, scaled USDC use case," generating high-velocity transaction flows that support both transaction revenue and reserve balances.

The note also framed “agentic AI” as a longer-term call option on USDC demand, arguing that autonomous software agents could eventually require internet-native money, though current volumes appear small and experimental.

Still, Mizuho warned that looming interest-rate cuts remain a potential headwind, given that reserve income still drives the vast majority of Circle’s revenue.