Wintermute: Correlation Between Crypto and U.S. Stock Retail Flows Turns Negative, U.S. Stock Market Activity May Become a Leading Indicator

According to Odaily, a recent report by Wintermute points out that since the end of 2024, the correlation between retail capital flows in the crypto market and the US stock market has shifted from positive to negative. The report states that while retail capital has been flowing into US stocks at record levels, overall trading activity in the crypto market has become more cautious, with the total market capitalization of altcoins and retail activity both declining simultaneously.

Data shows that the BTC/NDX volatility ratio has continued to decrease, dropping below 2x in the first half of 2025. With the improvement of investment tools such as ETFs and the integration of cross-platform trading channels, capital switching between crypto assets and traditional stocks has become more convenient.

Wintermute believes that the activity level of US stock retail trading is becoming an important leading indicator for observing trends in the crypto market, and investors need to examine changes in capital flows from a multi-asset allocation perspective.