Economist: AI Productivity Dividend Difficult to Resolve Fiscal Constraints, or Only "Buy Time" for High-Debt Economies

BlockBeats News, February 27th, economists analyzed that even if the productivity boom brought by artificial intelligence becomes a reality, it is difficult to fundamentally address the public finance dilemma of major economies, but it may buy them more adjustment time.

OECD economist Filiz Unsal stated that if AI-driven productivity growth can drive job creation, by 2036, the debt levels of OECD countries such as the United States, Germany, and Japan are expected to decline by 10 percentage points from current expectations—but this will still be significantly higher than the current level.

Economist Idanna Appio, who previously served at the New York Fed, pointed out that productivity improvement is like "magic," which can greatly improve fiscal dynamics, but "our fiscal problems far exceed what productivity can fix."

The analysis believes that population aging is a core challenge. Vanguard's Global Economic Research Head Kevin Khang stated that the root of the debt lies in aging populations and the associated welfare spending, and "solving this problem requires fiscal consolidation, while AI has only bought us time."

Furthermore, there is still uncertainty on the tax and expenditure front: if AI leads to job losses or profits and capital gains benefit the most, fiscal revenues may fall short of expectations; if productivity gains drive up private sector wages, the labor costs borne by the government will also rise. Barclays warned that if an economic downturn precedes the AI boom, the market may preemptively react nervously to the fiscal trajectory.