Alexandra Hermann, Chief Economist at Oxford Economics, stated that India's GDP data exceeded both our expectations and those of the market, although methodological adjustments mean that year-on-year comparisons are not so straightforward.
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More accurate statistics on the faster-growing segments of the economy indicate that, under the new statistical series, the measured growth trend is likely to exhibit stronger structural characteristics. As the impact of food price fluctuations on overall inflation diminishes and with revisions to the methods for inflation data and national accounts series, actual economic growth will become more robust, making the likelihood of further interest rate cuts extremely low. In fact, strong demand has pushed up the core inflation rate, which, in our view, increases the risk of a rate hike before the end of 2026.
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