Bitcoin’s 4-Year Cycle Still Intact as On-Chain Signals Realign

The four-year Bitcoin cycle has not disappeared into the noise. According to an analysis shared around CryptoQuant data, the 2026 drop resembles, in its internal mechanics, the corrective phase of the previous cycle. Price and on-chain indicators reconnect, like two pieces of the same puzzle once thought lost.

A Bitcoin Cycle That Repeats… Especially When Looking at the Structure

The central idea is simple. After the halving, Bitcoin accelerates strongly, then the momentum cracks. This “expansion then weakening” sequence appears again in the market reference points used by analysts.

During expansion phases, the price often moves above the VWAP anchored at halving, the Volume Weighted Average Price, in other words, the volume-weighted average price. It’s a benchmark. Even a compass. When closes remain near the upper bands, the market frequently enters an overheating zone. And this sequence, Bitcoin plays it again cycle after cycle.

Then the music changes. Crossing below closely monitored technical levels, like the weekly SMA50, often acts as a sign of fatigue. Not a guaranteed “top.” More of a change in pace.

The Turning Point: When Bitcoin’s Price Stops Being Carried “Alone”

In the 2020–2022 cycle, one moment often comes up in retrospectives. The market makes a relative low, then fails to make a new high. Bitcoin’s price starts respecting resistances, not just supports.

This pattern is exactly what many are looking for today. Not to guess the next figure, but to characterize the environment. A market that rebounds in a solid trend does not have the same texture as a market that rebounds by reflex.

The important nuance is that these signals do not “prove” a predetermined follow-up. They mainly say that Bitcoin has not entered a totally new regime. The current correction behaves like a cycle correction, with its stages and friction zones.

On-Chain Data Confirms Tension, Not Just Volatility

This is where the analysis becomes more interesting. When Bitcoin’s price weakens and on-chain remains robust, it can be called a simple shakeout. When the price weakens and on-chain deteriorates at the same time, it is structural stress.

During Bitcoin’s 2026 drop, several metrics approach levels already seen in the 2022 period. The “Supply in Loss” would hover around 9.5 million BTC. The NUPL would have cooled to about +0.11. Realized losses would approach 6 billion dollars. This trio tells the same story: many recent buyers are trapped.

Another sharp signal. “New whales” would shift into negative territory via UPR, while older large holders would still be in profit, but with a shrinking margin. On the short term side, the NUPL of recent holders would turn negative, which fits with an idea of capitulation.

What This Implies: Not a Cycle End, Rather a Foundation Test

Saying “the Bitcoin cycle holds” does not mean “the bottom is made.” The analysis itself remains cautious. The message is mainly that the correction fits a known grammar, instead of being an accident without logic.

Within this framework, two outcomes remain open. Either the pressure worsens and we slide toward a deeper capitulation. Or the market builds a base, with price stabilization and a gradual improvement of latent loss and profit indicators.

One last point deserves to be kept in mind. The “4-year cycle” is a map, not the territory. Macro factors, liquidity, and regulation can accelerate or slow down the scenario. But when Bitcoin’s price and on-chain start telling the same story again, it becomes harder to dismiss the cycle with a wave of the hand.