A Bitcoin analyst on Trading says he will be “forced to switch” his bearish bias if BTC can reclaim and hold above a key resistance band around $69,500–$70,000 — but argues the odds still favor one more capitulation leg lower.
Aaron Dishner’s latest breakdown focuses on failed support retests, weakening volume and historical parallels with 2018 and 2022 that, in his view, are “too similar to ignore.”
The level That Breaks His Bearish Bias
After a surprise rebound from roughly $62,500 on Tuesday to almost $70,000 on Wednesday, BTC briefly pierced a previously lost support zone but failed to close above it. The analyst highlights the area near $69,500 as crucial: price tagged it and was “clearly rejected,” confirming it as resistance on the daily chart.
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Aaron Dishner a.k.a Moonin Papa states that a decisive daily close back inside that band — “closing above $69,000, we’ll say $69.5K” — would invalidate his current bear-flag thesis and open the way to higher levels.
Using what he calls a resistance fan drawn from prior swing highs, he marks a potential upside target around $74,000–$75,000 if that reclaim happens, with a more extreme “god candle” scenario pointing up toward about $87,500.
Despite outlining that path, he repeatedly stresses he would be “honestly surprised or shocked” to see BTC achieve it in the near term.
On-Balance Volume Still Poins To Capitulation?
The core of his skepticism is volume. Looking at BTC/USDT on Binance, he notes that Monday’s 4.4% drop came with a large spike in trading activity, while Wednesday’s sharp bounce saw significantly weaker participation. For him, that suggests curiosity rather than conviction.
He leans heavily on on-balance volume (OBV) with a 21-period moving average, arguing the down-sloping OBV trend line mirrors the pattern seen after the November 2021 all-time high.
Back then, OBV stayed below a falling average for weeks, and even when it briefly intersected a flattening line, price ultimately drifted lower. “A flat moving average is just as bad as a downtrending one,” he says, calling sideways, low-energy action a classic precursor to bearish outcomes.
To make the prevailing trend visually obvious, Moonin Papa inverts the BTC chart and points to four rising moving averages and a series of higher highs and higher lows — a bullish structure in reverse.
That, he argues, is simply the current downtrend viewed without bias: “You give me one good reason why this chart should, all of a sudden, just dump” in inverted form, he challenges, implying the un-inverted chart is unlikely to suddenly go parabolic without a clear catalyst and heavy volume.
Altcoin Pops, Jane Street Drama: What Would Change His Mind?
The analyst acknowledges that altcoins are flashing strength while Bitcoin merely holds flat on the day (around +0.4% at the time of filming).
Names like ICP, PENDLE and others he cites are up 5–8%, with even a meme asset like Fart Coin (FART) breaking above resistance. But he cautions that many of these moves are approaching technical ceilings — such as fast lines on his TBO indicator — and often lack sustainable volume and OBV support.
On the regulatory front, Aaron Dishner references reports that Jane Street may face penalties for alleged BTC price manipulation, calling it “a good win” for market fairness but warning viewers not to assume that removing one actor solves structural issues: “Really you think Jane Street is the only one?” He name-checks BlackRock as an obvious remaining heavyweight.
His broader thesis is that BTC likely needs one more “capitulation plunge,” with possible downside areas he has discussed in prior videos around $60,000, $49,000 and even the high-$30,000s.
He draws comparisons to 2022, when nine straight red weekly candles were followed by a single 11% green week — which felt like relief but ultimately preceded a further 44% drawdown.
Still, Aaron Dishner a.k.a Moonin Papa leaves the door open: if Bitcoin can break above $69,500, hold that region “all weekend” despite typical weekend volatility, and do so on strong, expanding volume — particularly visible on Binance — he says he will respect the signal and shift his stance. Until then, he believes bulls are “walking on thin ice.”
For crypto investors, the takeaway is less about a precise price target and more about conditions: watch the $69.5K band, monitor real spot volume and OBV trends, and treat sharp altcoin rallies cautiously if Bitcoin is grinding sideways under major resistance.
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The analyst points to a daily close back above roughly $69,500–$70,000, sustained with strong volume, as the line that would force him to abandon his bear-flag view.
If resistance is reclaimed, his resistance fan suggests a next logical target around $74,000–$75,000, with a more aggressive extension near $87,500 in an extreme pump scenario.
He argues the rebound from $62,500 to nearly $70,000 came on relatively weak volume and against a still-downtrending OBV moving average, which historically has aligned with continued downside.
He sees alt rallies as positive but fragile, noting many are running into key resistance with thin volume and could reverse quickly if Bitcoin resumes its downtrend.
