Sunrun Stock Falls 30% As Growth Metrics Disappoint

Sunrun Inc (NASDAQ:RUN) shares are trading sharply lower Friday after the solar and storage provider posted fourth-quarter results after the bell Thursday that topped Wall Street forecasts but highlighted slower growth. Here’s what investors need to know.

• Sunrun shares are sliding. Why is RUN stock dropping?

Q4 Earnings And Sales Beat Estimates

The company reported adjusted fourth-quarter earnings of 38 cents per share, smashing analyst expectations for a loss of 8 cents, though profits fell sharply from $1.41 a year earlier.

Revenue jumped 124% year over year to $1.16 billion, well ahead of the $614 million analysts were expecting, driven by higher energy systems and product sales.

Key Growth Metrics Reveal Mixed Trends

Despite the headline beat, investors are potentially focused on softer operating trends. Subscriber additions fell 17% from the prior-year quarter to 25,475, while storage capacity and solar installations declined.

Aggregate Subscriber Value dropped 18% year over year to $1.3 billion, and Net Subscriber Value decreased 30% as creation costs per new subscriber rose 8%.

Outlook Highlights Cash Generation, Market Uncertainty

Sunrun emphasized improving cash generation and a stronger balance sheet, including $187 million of cash generation in the fourth quarter and $377 million for 2025. Management forecast positive cash generation between $250 million and $450 million in 2026, along with Contracted Net Value Creation of $650 million to $1.05 billion for the year.

Even so, lingering concerns about higher financing costs, evolving policy risks and weaker subscriber economics, highlighted in Thursday’s regulatory filings, appeared to overshadow the earnings beat in Friday's early trading.

Sunrun Falls Below Key Averages

Sunrun shares on Friday pulled back sharply and are now trading below the 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages.

Falling beneath all three key SMAs signals weakening momentum and suggests growing short-term technical pressure on the stock.

Jefferies Downgrades RUN Stock

Analyst Consensus & Recent Actions: The stock carries a Buy Rating with an average price target of $18.81. Recent analyst moves include:

• Jefferies: Downgraded to Hold (Target $22.00) (Feb. 27)

RUN Stock Falls Sharply Friday Morning

RUN Price Action: Sunrun shares were down 27.18% at $14.87 at the time of publication on Friday, according to Benzinga Pro data.

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