Oil Surges as Countdown to Iran Deadline Nears

Oil Prices End February Strong Amid Rising Iran Tensions

Crude oil closed out February on a solid note, supported by ongoing geopolitical strains involving Iran. However, with little focus on the upcoming OPEC+ meeting, the market could be caught off guard by a possible increase in production.

Market Highlights – Friday, February 27, 2026

Oil prices climbed by $1 per barrel during the final week of February, driven by escalating tensions between the United States and Iran. Recent indirect negotiations in Geneva between Washington and Tehran ended without progress, and with President Trump’s 10- to 15-day deadline nearing expiration, uncertainty remains high. Despite these developments, the media has shown little interest in the forthcoming OPEC+ summit, which could encourage Saudi Arabia to propose another production increase for April.

Key Developments in the Oil Market

• OPEC+ Considers Raising Output
  Reports indicate that OPEC+ is weighing a proposal to boost its production quota by 137,000 barrels per day, resuming increases after a three-month pause. Saudi Arabia anticipates that ongoing US-Iran tensions will help support prices.
• Trump Administration Delays Lukoil Asset Sale
  The US has postponed the sale of international assets belonging to Russia’s largest private oil company, which was sanctioned in October 2025. The deadline for the $22 billion Carlyle deal has been extended from February 28 to April 1.
• US Eases Oil Restrictions on Cuba
  The US Treasury announced it would allow companies to resell Venezuelan oil to Cuba’s private sector, potentially alleviating the island’s persistent fuel shortages. A tanker loaded with gasoline is already prepared for shipment.
• EU Seeks Broader Backing for Russian Oil Ban
  The European Union is working to coordinate a comprehensive ban on maritime services for Russian crude exports with other G7 nations. The measure was not included in the EU’s 20th sanctions package, with Greece and Malta expressing concerns.
• Saudi LPG Export Disruptions Drive Asian Prices Higher
  Asian liquefied petroleum gas prices surged to $600 per tonne, the highest since March 2025, after Saudi Aramco declared force majeure on LPG shipments from its Juaymah port due to a collapsed jetty support structure.
• EU Faces Internal Pushback on Carbon Market
  Italy’s industry minister called for suspending the EU’s carbon trading system, citing excessive financial speculation. Germany also advocated for a swift overhaul of the bloc’s carbon pricing mechanism.
• Kazakhstan’s Tengiz Field Nears Full Production
  Kazakhstan’s largest oil field, Tengiz, is ramping up output after a month-long disruption caused by a power plant fire, though production remains about 15% below its 950,000 b/d capacity.

Additional Global Energy Updates

• US Maintains Pressure on Iran
  Alongside nuclear discussions in Geneva, the US Treasury imposed new sanctions on 12 tankers linked to Iran’s oil and petrochemical exports, including five LPG carriers involved in trade with China.
• Cheniere Energy Secures LNG Deal with Taiwan
  US LNG producer Cheniere Energy signed a 25-year agreement to supply Taiwan’s CPC with 1.2 million tonnes of LNG annually, covering 5% of Taiwan’s yearly gas demand.
• Angola Pursues Chinese Financing for Refinery
  Angola’s state oil company Sonangol is negotiating a $4.8 billion loan from Chinese banks to fund its planned 200,000 b/d Lobito refinery, marking its first major Chinese borrowing since 2017.
• Asian Buyers Brace for Higher Saudi Oil Prices
  Heightened US-Iran military tensions have pushed up prices for medium sour crude in the Middle East, with the Dubai M1-M3 spread rising by nearly $1.20 per barrel since January. Buyers of Saudi oil are preparing for significant price increases.
• Qatar Plans Further LNG Expansion
  QatarEnergy is moving forward with the North Field West LNG project, awarding a major contract to Technip and targeting a late 2031 start, despite already having 48 mtpa of new capacity in the pipeline.
• Zimbabwe’s Lithium Export Ban Spurs Price Rally
  Zimbabwe halted lithium concentrate exports to encourage domestic processing and curb illegal shipments, causing global prices to jump over 5% as Guangzhou futures reached $26,000 per tonne.
• Iran Resumes Gas Exports to Iraq
  After a two-month pause to prioritize domestic heating, Iran has restarted natural gas exports to Iraq, albeit at a reduced rate of 7 million cubic meters per day.

By Tom Kool for Oilprice.com