B&G Foods Prepares for Fourth Quarter Earnings: Important Elements to Monitor

B&G Foods, Inc. Set to Announce Q4 Fiscal 2025 Results

B&G Foods, Inc. (BGS) is expected to report a decrease in earnings for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025, with results scheduled for March 3. Analyst consensus for earnings per share remains at 28 cents, unchanged over the past month, which points to a 9.7% drop compared to the same period last year. Over the last four quarters, BGS has averaged a negative earnings surprise of 19.5%.

Price, Consensus, and EPS Trends for B&G Foods, Inc.

For more details, see the B&G Foods, Inc. price-consensus-eps-surprise chart and the latest quote.

Key Factors Impacting Q4 Performance

B&G Foods is navigating a challenging consumer landscape while shifting its product portfolio. During the third-quarter earnings call, management noted that core business sales were improving sequentially and anticipated that fourth-quarter results, excluding divested businesses, would be in line with recent patterns. An extra week in fiscal 2025 is expected to provide a slight boost to reported sales, potentially offsetting ongoing softness in certain retail segments.

Demand in traditional grocery categories remains inconsistent, as shoppers continue to prioritize value and promotions remain prevalent. Retailers are also managing inventory levels cautiously, which affects shipment timing. While foodservice, club, and private label channels have shown some stability, branded retail sales trends are mixed.

In the Spices & Flavor Solutions segment, B&G Foods has implemented selective price increases to counteract higher costs for raw materials and tariffs on some imported ingredients. The fourth quarter is likely to reflect the initial effects of these pricing actions.

On the cost side, the company is pursuing productivity improvements and cost-saving measures across manufacturing, supply chain, and overhead. Although overall input cost inflation is described as moderate, certain commodities and packaging materials remain under pressure. High leverage and ongoing tariff uncertainties are expected to continue weighing on year-over-year profit growth.

Will BGS Beat Earnings Expectations?

Current indicators do not point to an earnings beat for B&G Foods this quarter. Typically, a positive Earnings ESP combined with a Zacks Rank of #1 (Strong Buy), #2 (Buy), or #3 (Hold) increases the likelihood of surpassing estimates, but that is not the case here. B&G Foods holds a Zacks Rank #3 and an Earnings ESP of 0.00%. You can use the Earnings ESP Filter to find stocks with better odds of beating earnings.

Stocks Poised for an Earnings Beat

The following companies are highlighted by the model as having favorable conditions for exceeding earnings expectations this reporting season:

• Ross Stores (ROST): Earnings ESP of +3.06% and a Zacks Rank #2. Projected quarterly revenue is $6.38 billion, up 7.8% from last year. Expected EPS is $1.87, representing 4.5% growth. Ross Stores has delivered an average earnings surprise of 6.7% over the past four quarters. See the full list of Zacks #1 Rank stocks.
• Dollar General Corporation (DG): Earnings ESP of +10.44% and a Zacks Rank #3. Estimated quarterly revenue is $10.77 billion, a 4.5% increase from the prior year. Expected EPS is $1.59, which would be a 5.4% decrease year over year. Dollar General has averaged a 22.9% earnings surprise over the last four quarters.
• Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST): Earnings ESP of +0.87% and a Zacks Rank #3. Expected quarterly revenue is $69.22 billion, up 8.6% from the previous year. Projected EPS is $4.53, indicating 12.7% growth. Costco has averaged a 0.5% earnings surprise in the past four quarters.

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Additional Resources

For the latest stock recommendations from Zacks Investment Research, you can download the report on the 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Get your free copy here.

• Dollar General Corporation (DG): Free Stock Analysis Report
• Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST): Free Stock Analysis Report
• Ross Stores, Inc. (ROST): Free Stock Analysis Report
• B&G Foods, Inc. (BGS): Free Stock Analysis Report

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