Wall Street grows optimistic driven by geopolitical factors and technical trends, while Main Street anticipates a peak in sentiment for 2026 as gold aims for $5,300 per ounce

Gold and Silver Surge Amid Geopolitical Uncertainty

This week, precious metals experienced significant price swings, with gold and silver benefiting from renewed safe-haven demand as global tensions dominated the news cycle.

At the start of the week, spot gold opened at $5,146.59 and quickly gained momentum. By Sunday night, prices had climbed to $5,174 before briefly retreating to $5,125 in the early hours. As North American markets opened, gold surged from $5,146 to $5,214 by late morning, eventually peaking above $5,245 per ounce by evening—a level that held until Friday’s developments involving Iran.

Monday evening saw gold ease back to around $5,165, and by Tuesday morning, the trend reversed, with prices dropping to a weekly low of $5,100 just before the equity markets opened.

However, gold quickly rebounded, returning to $5,165 by early afternoon. After another dip to $5,131, prices broke back above $5,200 overnight into Wednesday, reaching as high as $5,215 by midday. The metal then entered a period of relative stability, trading within a narrow range between $5,150 and $5,200 through Wednesday and Thursday.

Friday brought renewed volatility, as U.S. evacuation orders in the Middle East sent gold soaring from $5,185 to $5,235 in under an hour, and then to a new weekly high of $5,254 by late morning. The rally continued into the weekend, with gold closing at $5,281.15 per ounce, its highest point of the week.

Market Sentiment: Analysts and Investors Remain Bullish

The latest Kitco News Weekly Gold Survey revealed growing optimism among Wall Street professionals, with Main Street investors also showing increased confidence following gold’s strong performance.

• Rich Checkan (Asset Strategies International): Remains bullish, citing central bank gold purchases, U.S. economic weakness, political uncertainty, a soft dollar, and high national debt as ongoing drivers for gold’s rally.
• Adam Button: Holds a neutral stance, noting that geopolitical developments will dictate market direction.
• James Stanley: Maintains a positive outlook, though he notes resistance at $5,238 and cautions that chasing prices at current levels may be risky.
• Darin Newsom: Expects gold to keep rising, emphasizing persistent global uncertainties as a reason to continue buying.
• Adrian Day (Adrian Day Asset Management): Predicts further gains, with central banks and Tether likely to remain major buyers as prices approach $5,500.

Sean Lusk of Walsh Trading observed that the U.S. government’s statements regarding Iran fueled gains across commodities, with traders positioning themselves defensively ahead of the weekend. He emphasized that the rally is driven by more than just geopolitical risks, pointing to broader economic and financial uncertainties.

Lusk also commented that while a resolution with Iran could trigger a short-term pullback—potentially sending silver down by $15—he expects renewed buying to follow. He believes technical indicators continue to support higher prices for both gold and silver, with investors consistently buying on dips.

Survey Results: Strong Bullish Majority

In this week’s Kitco News Gold Survey, 18 analysts participated. Two-thirds (67%) anticipated gold would surpass $5,300 in the coming week, while only 11% expected a decline. The remaining 22% predicted a neutral outcome. Among 266 Main Street respondents, 76% forecasted higher gold prices, 13% expected a drop, and 11% saw prices remaining steady.

Key Economic Events to Watch Next Week

While next week’s economic calendar is not packed, several important data releases are on the horizon, including:

• Monday: ISM Manufacturing PMI for February
• Wednesday: ISM Services and ADP Nonfarm Payrolls
• Thursday: Weekly jobless claims
• Friday: February Nonfarm Payrolls and January Retail Sales

Marc Chandler (Bannockburn Global Forex) believes that escalating tensions with Iran could propel gold higher, especially if prices break above $5,250, with a potential target of $5,500. He also notes that a drop in U.S. 10-year yields could further support gold.

Kevin Grady (Phoenix Futures and Options) remains optimistic, viewing recent market corrections as healthy and expecting $5,200 to serve as a new base for further advances. He sees the underlying factors supporting gold and silver as unchanged and expects the rally to continue.

Alex Kuptsikevich offers a more cautious view, suggesting that while gold has risen about 2% this week, the gains are moderate and driven by ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and stock market volatility. He sees potential for a rebound to $5,300 but warns of possible selling pressure in the longer term.

CPM Group analysts issued a short-term sell recommendation for gold, targeting $5,100 with a stop loss at $5,275. They note that while gold could move higher in the coming month, there is a risk of a pullback in the near term, especially if prices break above recent highs.

Kitco’s senior analyst Jim Wyckoff highlighted that heightened U.S.-Iran tensions are fueling safe-haven demand. He identified $5,400 as the next resistance level for April gold futures, with support at $5,109.50 and $5,100.

Current Gold Performance

At the time of reporting, spot gold was last quoted at $5,278.51 per ounce, marking a 3.12% increase for the week and a 1.80% gain for the day.