GE Aerospace (GE): A Bull Case Theory
We came across a bullish thesis on GE Aerospace on Rijnberk InvestInsights’s Substack by Daan | InvestInsights. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on GE. GE Aerospace's share was trading at $315.41 as of February 13th. GE’s trailing and forward P/E were 39.18 and 42.55, respectively according to Yahoo Finance.
GE Aerospace has emerged as a pure-play aviation propulsion leader following the 2024 breakup of General Electric, retaining the crown jewel of the former conglomerate: its dominant jet engine franchise. With roughly 75% of the active commercial fleet powered by its engines and an installed base of approximately 78,000 engines, GE Aerospace operates a lifecycle-driven model where services account for about 70% of revenue and generate the majority of profits.
Through flagship programs like the GE90 and GEnx, and especially via CFM International—its joint venture with Safran Aircraft Engines—GE powers both Boeing and Airbus platforms, including the LEAP engine that dominates narrowbody aircraft. This scale creates a powerful data advantage, deep customer lock-in, and decades-long recurring service revenue streams, further supported by defense exposure tied to rising global military budgets.
Recent results highlight exceptional momentum, with revenue up 26% YoY in Q3, operating margins above 20%, and free cash flow tracking above $7 billion annually. A $175 billion backlog and consistent book-to-bill above 1 reinforce long-term visibility. Structurally, global fleet expansion, rising utilization, MRO growth, and defense modernization underpin a credible 7–9% long-term revenue CAGR with durable margin expansion.
However, at $315 per share, GE Aerospace trades around 50x earnings and over 40x forward free cash flow, pricing in sustained peak momentum. While the business quality is undeniable and long-term prospects remain outstanding, expected returns from current levels appear modest. GE Aerospace becomes a compelling long-term investment below $280 per share, where valuation better compensates investors for normalization risk while preserving exposure to a world-class industrial compounder.
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Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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