Fresh accounts netted $1 million on Polymarket hours before US airstrikes on Iran: Bubblemaps

Onchain analytics firm Bubblemaps flagged six Polymarket wallets on Saturday that profited a combined $1 million by betting on a U.S. military strike against Iran, with most accounts created and funded within 24 hours of the attack.

The wallets all purchased "yes" shares on the Polymarket contract "US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?" hours before the U.S. and Israel launched coordinated airstrikes early Saturday morning. President Donald Trump confirmed "massive and ongoing" military operations against Iran, which the Department of War has dubbed "Operation Epic Fury."

Bubblemaps described the group as "suspected insiders" who made $1.2 million. The Block reviewed all six flagged Polymarket profiles, including their closed positions and per-trade profit-and-loss breakdowns. The wallets' combined net profit totals $989,191, according to the Profit/Loss figures displayed on each profile.

Winning wallets — and one big loser

The largest wallet in the cluster recorded a net profit of $494,375 across four predictions. The account bought 560,680 "yes" shares on the Feb. 28 contract at 10.8 cents each, spending roughly $60,816 and earning a $499,864 profit when the contract resolved to "yes." It also won $11,286 on a March 1 contract. However, the wallet lost $13,515 on a bet that the strike would come by February 27, which did not resolve in its favor.

A second wallet, "Planktonbets," posted a net profit of $173,907 across seven predictions. Its main position was 200,747 "yes" shares on the Feb. 28 contract at 13.2 cents, which returned $174,234 in profit. The account also placed small losing bets on daily "next strike" contracts for Feb. 19 and 20, suggesting repeated attempts to time the exact date.

"Dicedicedice" placed a single bet and earned $119,964 in net profit. The account bought 149,955 "yes" shares on the Feb. 28 contract at 20 cents, a 400% return.

"Neodbs" also placed one bet and achieved the highest percentage return of any wallet in the group: 900%. The account bought 98,838 shares on the Feb. 28 contract at 10 cents, spending $9,884 and netting $88,954.

A wallet using the username "nothingeverhappens911" posted $66,436 in net profit across two bets, both winners. It held 40,000 "yes" shares on the Feb. 28 contract at 19 cents and 45,320 shares on the March 1 contract at 24.9 cents.

A sixth wallet, listed only as "Anon" on Polymarket, made a single bet: 55,556 "yes" shares on the Feb. 28 contract at 18 cents. It earned $45,556 in net profit, a 456% return. All six wallets now show $0 in positions value, indicating they have fully exited.

Some traders lost big on the announcement of the U.S. strikes against Iran. Trader "anoin123" profited $2 million in prior months from betting against strikes, but the account lost $6.5 million in one day following the strikes, "going from $2M+ in profit to $4.5M+ in losses."

"It’s almost impossible to be 100% certain [of insider knowledge] in these cases, but given the size of the bets, the freshly funded wallets, and the timing around the bets, it felt convincing enough for us to share," Bubblemaps CEO Nicolas Vaiman told The Block. 

A growing pattern of suspected insiders

Suspected insider trading on Polymarket's geopolitical markets is not new. In January, a freshly created account wagered roughly $32,000 on the ouster of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, purchasing shares at around 7 cents before the U.S. military operation was publicly announced. That trade yielded more than $400,000 in profit within 24 hours, prompting Rep. Ritchie Torres to introduce the Public Integrity in Financial Prediction Markets Act of 2026, which would bar federal officials from trading prediction market contracts tied to government policy.

Earlier this month, Israeli prosecutors filed indictments against an Israel Defense Forces reservist and a civilian for allegedly using classified military intelligence to bet on Polymarket. The pair reportedly wagered on the timing of Israel's strike on Iran during the June 2025 Twelve-Day War, earning over $150,000 in combined profits. They face charges of severe security offenses, bribery, and obstruction of justice.

Just days ago, suspected insiders made over $1 million betting on a Polymarket contract tied to blockchain investigator ZachXBT's probe into crypto trading platform Axiom, according to Lookonchain. The most profitable wallet in that case turned a five-figure bet into nearly half a million dollars.

Broader implications

The Bubblemaps findings come as Polymarket faces mounting regulatory and political pressure over the integrity of its geopolitical markets. The "US strikes Iran by...?" family of contracts has generated over $529 million in total trading volume since December 2025, making it one of the most heavily traded markets on the platform.

Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan has previously defended the presence of informed traders on the platform, telling CBS News that insiders "having an edge on the market is a good thing" because it accelerates price discovery. The company secured CFTC approval to operate as a regulated exchange in the U.S. in late 2025.

Rival platform Kalshi has publicly endorsed the Torres bill and sought to distance itself from Polymarket's approach, with CEO Tarek Mansour noting Kalshi applies NYSE- and Nasdaq-style insider trading rules. Mansour said on X Friday that "regulated prediction markets are not allowed to do war markets" in response to Democratic Senator Chris Murphy's X post announcing he is "working on legislation to ban corrupt and destabilizing prediction markets."