S&P Global Inc. (SPGI): A Bull Case Theory

We came across a bullish thesis on S&P Global Inc. on Feather Fund’s Substack. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on SPGI. S&P Global Inc.'s share was trading at $418.27 as of February 24th. SPGI’s trailing and forward P/E were 36.64 and 24.69 respectively according to Yahoo Finance.

S&P Global Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides benchmarks, data, analytics, and workflow solutions in the global capital, energy and commodity, and automotive markets. On April 29, 2025, S&P Global (SPGI) announced plans to spin off its Mobility segment into a standalone public company, Mobility Global, Inc., expected to complete by mid-2026.

Mobility Global is positioned as the premier data and analytics infrastructure for the global automotive value chain, offering high-margin, recurring subscription services to dealerships, OEMs, consumers, and financial institutions.

Its key products—CARFAX, automotiveMastermind, Polk Automotive Solutions, and Market Scan—address critical pain points across the used and new vehicle markets, from reducing information asymmetry and improving predictive sales efficiency to providing “census-level” market measurement and transactional transparency.

CARFAX, with access to over 112,000 data sources, serves more than 100,000 dealerships and millions of consumers, creating a self-reinforcing network effect that is difficult for competitors to replicate. Mastermind’s predictive Behavior Prediction Score and integration with Dealer Management Systems ensure high stickiness, while Polk’s longitudinal 30-year data set provides OEMs and marketers with unparalleled insights.

Mobility Global’s financial profile is characterized by an 81% recurring revenue base, adjusted operating margins of 35.4%, and asset-light operations with minimal capital requirements, translating into predictable, high-quality cash flow. Structural growth drivers include the expanding used vehicle market, pricing power from brand equity, EV adoption, dealer SaaS penetration, international expansion, and a shift toward higher-margin subscription products.

The spin-off unlocks strategic autonomy, allowing focused investment in product innovation and M&A while enabling a potential market rerating as a pure-play automotive technology leader. While short-term execution risks exist during the separation, including operational dis-synergies and management distraction, Mobility Global’s entrenched competitive moat, durable margins, and scalable business model position it as a compelling bullish investment with significant upside potential for equity and credit investors.