CITIC Securities: The situation in Iran is still rapidly evolving and it is difficult to predict and deduce the final scenario in one go.

CITIC Securities' research report stated that on February 28 local time, the situation in Iran entered the stage of military conflict outbreak. As of 10:00 on March 1 (UTC+8), Beijing time, the situation in Iran was still rapidly evolving. CITIC Securities expects that it is difficult to speculate and deduce the final scenario at once, and it is more likely to continue fluctuating with important signals. CITIC Securities believes that whether there are potential changes in three key signals—the US military's military deployment, changes in Iran's political situation, and the scope of conflict spillover—will determine whether the global market impact will be an amplified version of the "Twelve-Day War" in June 2025, or move towards a more extreme scenario. To provide a reference for the potential market impact, CITIC Securities reviewed the market impact of eight major conflicts in the Middle East since the 1970s, which can be summarized as follows: safe-haven asset gold performs better than the US dollar, oil prices still depend on supply and demand in the long term, the performance of US stocks is directly related to the degree of US military intervention and the progress of the war, while there is no significant impact on Chinese assets.