US gasoline prices to rise after attack on Iran, analysts warn

By Shariq Khan and Jarrett Renshaw

NEW YORK, March 1 (Reuters) - U.S. average retail gasoline prices are set to break above $3 a gallon on Monday for the first time in more than three months as the conflict between the United States and major oil producer Iran interrupts global ‌oil flows, analysts said.

That's potentially a major risk for President Donald Trump and his Republican Party leading into November's midterm elections as price inflation ‌remains a key concern for voters. Trump has repeatedly - and often falsely- claimed credit for lowering gasoline prices since returning to office last year.

Average pump prices could surpass $3 per gallon on Monday for the first ​time this year, according to Patrick De Haan, an analyst at retail price tracker GasBuddy. Prices last broke above $3 nationwide in November 2025, according to GasBuddy data. They were as low as $2.85 a gallon in February.

"Oil will move first. Gasoline will follow — but gradually," De Haan said in a blog post after the strikes on Iran.

Iran is one of the world's top oil suppliers and its government has said it has closed navigation through the Strait of Hormuz following U.S. and Israeli air strikes that killed its Supreme Leader ‌Ali Khamenei.

Hormuz is a critical chokepoint in the Middle East ⁠Gulf through which around a fifth of the world's oil flows by tanker. At least three tankers have been damaged in the region, and major shippers have said they will avoid the strait.

Global benchmark Brent crude jumped 10% to about $80 a barrel over ⁠the counter on Sunday on the escalating impacts, and some analysts are predicting Brent could touch $100 as the Middle East plunges into a new war.

So far, the White House appears to be willing to accept the political risks from higher oil prices to pursue its foreign policy objectives, said Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group, an energy consultancy.

"Their eyes are wide ​open ​to the risk, and I expect they will focus on shortening the amount of time Iran ​has to control the flow of energy through the Strait of ‌Hormuz," McNally said.

The White House could also signal a willingness to release oil from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve to prevent prices from going too high, McNally said.

Former U.S. President Joe Biden had authorized a historic drawdown of the SPR in 2022 to address surging prices after Russia's invasion of Ukraine, a move that Trump and other Republicans have sharply criticized.

The White House did not immediately respond to requests for comment.