Goldman Sachs: Iran conflict pushes crude oil risk premium to $18 per barrel, price surge may be short-lived

1. Goldman Sachs stated in its latest report that it has set the real-time risk premium for crude oil prices at $18 per barrel. This assessment corresponds to the bank’s calculation of the impact if oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz were completely interrupted for six weeks. This risk premium is equivalent to the market pricing in a global supply disruption of 2.3 million barrels per day for a year.2. Goldman Sachs’ premium assessment is based on a 15% surge in IG Group’s WTI retail prices over the weekend. The report points out that although current risk forecasts are trending upward, history shows that price spikes driven by geopolitical shocks or temporary supply interruptions may be short-lived.3. The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most important oil transportation corridors. The current US-Iran conflict has led to heightened tensions in the region, with more than 200 vessels stranded and war risk insurance rates facing significant increases. Goldman Sachs’ analysis provides a quantitative reference for the market to assess the potential impact of geopolitical risks on oil prices.