If oil prices surge to $100, it will bring a new inflation shock to Japan

Monex Group director Jesper Koll has warned that rising oil prices could bring a new wave of inflation to Japan, threatening Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's promise to ease the cost-of-living pressures. If crude oil prices rise to $100–$120 per barrel in the coming months, it will trigger a supply shock, increasing Japanese consumer inflation by nearly 0.5 percentage points. As a net importer of oil, rising fuel costs will widen the trade deficit, intensify imported inflation, and further pressure the already weak yen. In addition, a surge in oil prices will complicate Bank of Japan policy, making interest rate hikes a potentially wrong move in this context. Japan may need to provide additional fiscal support to households, which could inject more uncertainty into the market.