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The $XRP price could react favorably if investors lock up 30% of the $XRP circulating supply, leaving just a little above 42 billion in circulation.
While $XRP has struggled in recent times, down nearly 30% this year alone, as it trades for $1.28, most market commentators believe a recovery could push prices to higher levels. One factor they believe could trigger a run to such greater heights is a supply crunch.
Key Points
- While $XRP has sustained massive losses over the past few months, market commentators believe a supply shock could contribute to a bull run.
- $XRP currently has a circulating supply of 61.1 billion tokens, and locking up to 30% would remove 18.33 billion tokens, leaving 42.77 billion in circulation.
- Google Gemini said a 30% lockup could eliminate 60% to 70% of liquid exchange supply, making large buy orders move prices by 5% to 10% instead of around 1%.
- Gemini projected a bullish price range of $7.50 to $11.00, with $7.50 representing roughly a 6x move from current levels.
- The $XRP Ledger does not support native Proof-of-Stake, though former Ripple CTO David Schwartz discussed a two-tier reward model in late 2025.
- Protocols like Flare have introduced third-party services that could produce yield for $XRP holders who stake their tokens.
What if 30% of $XRP Supply is Locked?
At press time, $XRP has a circulating supply of 61.1 billion tokens while changing hands at $1.28. Amid increased discussions surrounding a potential supply shock and how it could impact the price, we recently assessed how locking up 30% of the circulating supply could influence $XRP’s price.
If holders locked up 30% of the supply, about 18.33 billion $XRP would leave the market, leaving 42.77 billion tokens available for trading. However, it remains unclear how this could impact the $XRP price. As a result, we sought an assessment from the AI chatbot Google Gemini.
$XRP Could See Drop in Velocity
Google Gemini explained that the situation goes beyond the simple idea that less supply automatically means higher prices. Instead, it would likely create what it described as a serious liquidity crunch.
Gemini based its view on the Equation of Exchange, MV = PQ. In simple terms, if the money supply (M) stays the same but velocity (V) slows because 18.33 billion $XRP gets locked into staking contracts, then the price (P) would need to rise to support the same level of transaction demand (Q). When 30% of the supply leaves the market, it would have to adjust.
The AI chatbot also pointed out that a large share of $XRP’s circulating supply typically sits on exchanges. If holders lock up 30% of the total supply, this could mean 60% to 70% of the liquid supply on exchanges disappears.
The Impact of Thinner Order Books
This kind of drop would thin out order books. In such a setting, a large buy order that once moved the price by just 1% could now push it up by 5% or even 10%. Essentially, $XRP could jump in sharp moves as buyers struggle to find enough sellers instead of steady price increases.
Gemini also looked at how staking could change how holders behave. Notably, when people lock up their $XRP to earn yield, they often shift from short-term trading to longer-term holding. This can reduce panic selling during market dips because stakers focus on earning rewards rather than reacting to short-term price swings.
$XRP Price Prediction
Based on these ideas, Gemini shared a bullish price range of $7.5 to $11. A move to $7.50 would represent about a sixfold increase from the current $1.28 price. Gemini compared this type of move to past supply shocks in crypto markets, such as Bitcoin halving cycles, where reduced available supply led to major price rallies even when large amounts of coins remained in circulation.
At $11.00, Gemini highlighted what it sees as a potential peak during a liquidity crunch. If demand for $XRP, especially for cross-border payments, stays steady or grows while the liquid supply falls to very low levels, sellers on exchanges may raise their asking prices.
The State of $XRP Staking Today
Despite these projections, the $XRP Ledger does not support traditional Proof-of-Stake staking. XRPL uses its own consensus system, not Proof-of-Work or Proof-of-Stake. This means the network does not require users to lock $XRP to secure the blockchain or earn built-in rewards.
In late 2025, Ripple discussed a possible two-tier model that could add rewards without centralizing control, with Ripple also proposing the Lending Protocol. Today, the amendment for the protocol has entered the validator voting phase.
For now, most so-called $XRP staking options come from centralized exchanges, lending platforms, or sidechains. Firelight Protocol, backed by Flare and Sentora, launched around late 2025 and early 2026 on Flare, an interoperability chain that works with $XRP. Its FXRP protocol recently crossed 100 million $XRP tokens.
Major exchanges also offer yield products. OKX lists rates between 1.5% and 3.0% APY or APR with flexible or fixed lockups ranging from 1 to more than 30 days. Binance offers between 1.0% and 3.5% under similar flexible and fixed terms. Uphold advertises 2.0% to 4.0% with lock periods between 7 and 30 days.
