BTC Market Pulse: Week 10

Overview

While no decisive breakout has occurred, several metrics suggest conditions are gradually improving beneath the surface.Momentum is attempting to rebuild. RSI has lifted off recent lows but remains below the neutral 50 threshold, signalling recovery without full bullish control.

Spot CVD has improved materially, reflecting reduced aggressive selling, while futures CVD remains net negative, pointing to continued caution in leveraged markets. Open interest has edged lower, suggesting modest de-risking rather than fresh speculative expansion.

Options markets present a mixed picture. Volatility spread remains deeply negative, implying complacent implied volatility relative to realised moves, yet 25-delta skew has pushed above its upper band, signalling elevated downside hedging demand. Funding rates have cooled sharply, highlighting reduced appetite for leveraged long exposure.

On-chain activity shows constructive undertones. Daily active addresses and transfer volume have picked up, while transaction fees have risen in line with healthier network usage. However, realized cap change remains negative and NUPL stays firmly in loss-dominant territory, underscoring that broader capital flows and investor profitability remain fragile.

Positioning metrics reinforce a balanced but cautious structure. The STH/LTH ratio remains slightly elevated, hot capital share has declined meaningfully, and percent supply in profit continues to sit near the lower end of its historical range. Collectively, this points to a market transitioning from distribution pressure toward stabilisation, but without clear confirmation of sustained bullish expansion.

Overall, the backdrop reflects early-stage recovery dynamics within a still fragile environment. Momentum and activity are improving, yet conviction remains muted across derivatives, options, and capital flow metrics.

Off-Chain Indicators

On-Chain Indicators