The Daily: Fresh Polymarket accounts net $1M ahead of US airstrikes on Iran, JPMorgan says crypto bill could be approved within months and more

The following article is adapted from The Block’s newsletter, The Daily, which comes out on weekday afternoons.

Happy Monday! Bitcoin (BTC) is trading back above $69,000 despite escalating Middle East tensions and fading rate-cut hopes, with analysts citing contained liquidations, short-lived volatility spikes and upside positioning as signs of resilience under a "higher-for-longer" macro backdrop.

In today's newsletter, fresh Polymarket accounts net $1 million ahead of U.S. airstrikes on Iran, JPMorgan says a crypto market structure bill could be approved by mid-year, the controversial "Aave will win" proposal clears its temp check phase and more.

Meanwhile, Anthony Pompliano's bitcoin treasury company ProCap purchased another 450 BTC while stepping up efforts to buy back its own shares.

P.S. Don't forget to check out The Funding, a biweekly rundown of crypto VC trends. It's a great read — and just like The Daily, it's free to subscribe!

Fresh accounts netted $1 million on Polymarket hours before US airstrikes on Iran: Bubblemaps

Bubblemaps flagged six freshly created and funded wallets that collectively made around $1 million betting "yes" on Polymarket's Feb. 28 U.S.-Iran strike contract just hours before the airstrikes began.

• The largest wallet turned roughly $61,000 into nearly $500,000 by buying low-priced "yes" shares shortly before the market resolved.
• Most of the accounts funded their wallets within 24 hours of the strike and exited fully after the contract settled, according to the onchain analytics firm.
• Bubblemaps said the timing, trading size, and fresh funding patterns made the cluster look like suspected insiders, though it acknowledged it was almost impossible to be certain.
• The episode adds to mounting scrutiny of geopolitical prediction markets as regulators and lawmakers question whether such platforms adequately guard against insider trading.
• Separately, Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour defended his platform's handling of a contract tied to Iran's supreme leader following a backlash, saying it was structured to prevent traders from profiting directly from death.

JPMorgan says crypto market structure bill could be approved within months

JPMorgan analysts said Congress could approve the Clarity Act by mid-year, setting up a potential second-half catalyst for crypto markets despite current weak sentiment.

• The bill would classify tokens under CFTC or SEC jurisdiction, curb "regulation by enforcement," and open the door to broader institutional participation, in the analysts' view.
• Meanwhile, lawmakers remain divided over stablecoin yield rules and conflict-of-interest provisions, with banks and crypto firms lobbying hard as negotiations continue.
• If passed, the legislation would promote tokenization, ease compliance for major tokens, refine custody standards, and introduce tax and staking clarifications that could reshape U.S. crypto market structure, according to the analysts.

Michael Saylor's Strategy buys 3,015 bitcoin for $204 million as total holdings top 720,000 BTC

Michael Saylor's bitcoin treasury firm Strategy announced it had bought another 3,015 BTC for $204.1 million at an average price of $67,700, pushing its total holdings to 720,737 BTC.

• The company now controls just over 3.4% of bitcoin's total 21 million supply, with its stack worth about $50 billion at current prices — implying around $5 billion in unrealized losses.
• Strategy funded the latest purchases using proceeds from at-the-market sales of its Class A common stock, MSTR, and perpetual Stretch preferred stock, STRC.
• Despite expanding its bitcoin treasury, Strategy's shares remain roughly 70% down from its 2025 highs, with its mNAV hovering around 0.99.

'Aave will win' proposal clears temp check with 52.6% backing on revenue shift, V4 plan

The "Aave Will Win" proposal's temp check passed with 52.6% support, backing a plan to route 100% of Aave Labs' product revenue to the DAO treasury and anchor development around V4.

• The framework proposes new initiatives, including an Aave App, Aave Card, and a potential AAVE ETP, while transitioning V3 into maintenance as V4 matures.
• Aave Labs has requested $25 million in stablecoins and 75,000 AAVE plus milestone-based grants to fund product expansion and operations under the new structure.
• The vote drew continued controversy within Aave's governance community after ACI founder Marc Zeller argued the proposal only cleared due to Labs-linked delegations that, if excluded, would have flipped the outcome.The framework now advances to the
• ARFC stage, where refinements will be made before a formal onchain vote.

Developer embeds image on Bitcoin as a single transaction, challenging BIP-110's core claims

Martin Habovštiak embedded a 66 KB TIFF image depicting Knots developer Luke Dashjr into Bitcoin as a single contiguous transaction without using OP_RETURN, Taproot, or OP_IF.

• The proof-of-concept challenges core claims from BIP-110 proponents, who seek to restrict arbitrary data storage on Bitcoin, by showing that large data can bypass the proposal's targeted restrictions.
• Approximately 8.8% of Bitcoin nodes currently support BIP-110 via Bitcoin Knots as debate over data limits and so-called "spam" intensifies.

In the next 24 hours

• UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves is due to give her Spring Statement at 7:30 a.m. ET on Tuesday.
• U.S. FOMC members John Williams and Neel Kashkari will speak at 9:55 a.m. and 11:45 a.m., respectively.
• BitMEX and Hivemapper are among the crypto projects set for token unlocks.
• Digital Asset Summit Ontario kicks off in Toronto.

Never miss a beat with The Block's daily digest of the most influential events happening across the digital asset ecosystem.