Levi, a popular market expert, is warning XRP and HBAR holders that escalating conflict involving Iran, the US, and Israel could trigger a sharp, institution-led sell-off in digital assets as early as Monday’s market open. The host ties a series of overnight airstrikes, reported casualties, and fresh attacks on oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz to what he expects will be a fast “risk-off” move by large funds once traditional markets resume trading.
Strait Of Hormuz Disruption & Oil Shock At The Center
Levi Rietveld’s main argument is that the most critical development is not just the military exchange itself, but the targeting of oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, a choke-point he says channels “20% of the world’s oil.”
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With new airstrikes in Iran and hits on tankers reported “over the last 12 hours” while most retail traders slept, he expects a supply shock that legacy markets have not yet priced in due to weekend closures.
Levi cites Brent crude’s last settle around $72–73 per barrel, then points to over-the-counter indications of prices “jumping over 10% to around $80 a barrel” when futures reopen. Prior geopolitical flare-ups, he notes, have driven “5 to 15% initial moves” in oil, which he frames as a direct cost shock feeding into goods and services globally.
Crypto Resilience So Far, But Institutions Haven’t Moved Yet
While crypto prices have held up “surprisingly well” over the weekend, the host stresses that this resilience is almost entirely retail-driven. Large institutions, he says, have been “completely inactive” while traditional markets are closed and historically “sell pretty indiscriminately” during heightened geopolitical risk to satisfy shareholders and de-risk portfolios.
He sees a “very large sell-off for XRP and probably even every other cryptocurrency” as likely between Monday and mid-week, with Bitcoin leading, followed by Ethereum and XRP. In his view, the immediate timeline hinges on what he calls the current “kinetic phase” of the conflict, which he expects could last one to four weeks, depending on whether Iran’s leadership moves toward de-escalation or continues to rotate in anti-West commanders.
XRP’s Technical Price Levels & Trading Strategy
On XRP specifically, the analyst focuses on long-term weekly moving averages. Levi says XRP recently broke below its 100-week simple moving average and is now “rapidly approaching” the 200-week SMA, which he treats as his primary bear market bottom signal.
Further on, Levi Rietveld projects a possible dip “below a dollar and twelve cents,” with a potential bottom “just around one dollar per coin.”
Looking back to the 2022 cycle, he highlights the period when XRP traded below its 200-week SMA around $0.30 as a generational buying zone that later offered exits “anywhere above a dollar.” He expects a similar pattern: a break below the 200-week line, a consolidation of “a few months,” and then a full bull market breakout.
Despite positioning himself as long-term bullish on XRP, he says he is preparing for “short-term downwards pressure” by opening short positions ahead of Monday’s open, framing it as a tactical move rather than a change in fundamental outlook.
For crypto investors more broadly, the takeaway is straightforward: a weekend of calm prices may not reflect the scale of institutional risk-off behavior once oil futures, equities, and large capital allocators fully digest the implications of a prolonged disruption in one of the world’s most strategic energy corridors.
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The analyst expects higher oil prices and broader risk aversion to push institutions to cut crypto exposure, leading to a near-term sell-off.
In his framework, trading below the 200-week simple moving average has historically marked major cycle bottoms and attractive accumulation zones.
Not really. He remains bullish on XRP’s long-term prospects but is positioning for a short-term decline driven by macro and geopolitical risk.
He describes the current period as a “kinetic phase” that could last one to four weeks, with markets reacting to how quickly — or slowly — it de-escalates.
