Risk aversion and supply fears combine, significantly increasing oil price volatility

Jinse Finance reported that in the early trading session, the main contracts of SC crude oil and fuel oil both hit the daily limit up at opening. According to a research report by Chuangyuan Futures, the core driver of the surge is geopolitical factors. In early February, US-Iran nuclear talks began, and while the US pursued diplomatic mediation, it also increased military deployment and economic sanctions. The accumulation of geopolitical risks injected about $5 premium into oil prices. Last Thursday, the third round of US-Iran nuclear talks failed again on nuclear issues. On the 28th, the US and Israel launched airstrikes on Iran, and Iran immediately announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The US-Iran situation shifted from high-pressure confrontation to substantive conflict, with risk aversion and supply panic overlapping, significantly expanding oil price volatility. In the short term, the situation remains unclear. Attention should be paid to the evolution of the conflict and the degree of actual supply disruption, with oil prices maintaining a high and highly volatile state. The turning point lies in "expectations being disproved," meaning that once the conflict de-escalates or the strait blockade does not materialize, the previously priced-in risk premium will be quickly reversed. In the long term, although the geopolitical weight has risen significantly, the fundamentals of supply surplus remain unchanged, so after the disturbance, oil prices still face pressure to return to the central level.