Florida didn’t just get cold this winter. It got cold in a way that most growers working those fields hadn’t seen in over a decade, and the damage to the state’s produce supply is still being tallied. What started as a warning on the weather radar turned into one of the most consequential agricultural events the Sunshine State has seen since Hurricane Ian ripped through in 2022. For anyone moving refrigerated freight for a living, or shipping temperature-sensitive product out of the Southeast, you need to understand what happened, what it means for available loads right now, and where the market is likely to head as the dust settles.
Between late December 2025 and the first week of February 2026, Florida was hit with a series of freeze events that stacked on top of each other like bad luck on a Monday morning. The first freeze came on December 30th. Another one followed in mid-January. Then came what farmers are calling the real gut punch – an extended cold period that kicked off in late January and sent temperatures plummeting into the low 20s across Central Florida and the mid-to-upper 20s across inland South Florida.
Miami hit 35 degrees on February 1st – the lowest reading the city had seen since December 2010. For a region whose entire agricultural identity is built on year-round warmth, that’s not just uncomfortable. It’s devastating.
Farmers tried everything they could. Many used flood irrigation, letting water freeze over crops to create a protective layer of ice that holds heat close to the plant. But this winter had another weapon in its arsenal – winds. Gusts of 30 to 40 miles per hour hammered Central and South Florida during the worst of it, making it nearly impossible to cover crops with tarps, defeating the irrigation strategy, and in some cases causing ice to build up so heavy on plants that the branches snapped under the weight. One blueberry operation in Ocoee reported ice accumulating up to roughly 100 pounds per plant.
The University of Florida was still surveying the full scope of the damage weeks after the events, but Florida’s Agriculture Commissioner Wilton Simpson didn’t wait for the final numbers to speak plainly. He made clear that crop damage to the state would be significant, potentially exceeding $3 billion. A formal emergency order from the Commissioner’s office, dated February 17th, suspended normal best management practice verification requirements across nearly every county in the state due to the impossibility of conducting proper field assessments in the aftermath.
Not every commodity took the same kind of hit. The damage was uneven, which matters a lot for understanding where freight volumes are contracting most sharply.
Tomatoes and squash are where some of the most dramatic losses were concentrated. Markon Cooperative, a major North American produce supplier, issued a market update flagging that its affiliated squash growers were looking at more than 50 percent crop loss. Bell pepper growers were projecting losses approaching 50 percent as well. Tomatoes took damage across multiple farms, particularly in South Florida’s Homestead region, where one grower reported losing roughly 20 percent of his crop and said he’d already seen prices climbing as a result. One farmer in Palm Beach County said the price of sweet corn would likely double after losing around 300 acres worth of his crop.
Strawberries took a significant hit in Central Florida, with estimates pointing to losses reaching around 20 percent in some areas. This matters specifically because the Plant City area produces roughly three-quarters of America’s winter strawberries. The Florida Strawberry Festival runs from late February into early March, and reefer activity around that event was already baked into Q1 freight forecasts. That seasonal dynamic still plays out, but with less volume behind it.
Blueberries were hit hard across the board. Their bushes are particularly vulnerable to the cold, and in many cases where growers tried to protect them with sprinklers, the ice accumulation was so severe it compounded the damage rather than preventing it.
Citrus, which has already been fighting for its survival in Florida due to years of citrus greening disease, took another blow. Estimates suggest the freeze may have damaged or destroyed around 10 percent of the current citrus crop still on trees. For an industry already down over 60 percent in production compared to its peak years, that’s not a number anyone wanted to see.
And even the crops that survived aren’t necessarily in great shape. Consumers are being warned to expect fruit scarring on some items, smaller-than-average sizes, and shorter shelf lives on leafy greens and tender vegetables that were harvested under stress. Some of that product is still moving, but it’s moving faster toward its expiration date, which affects how buyers receive it and how aggressively they reorder.
Here’s where it gets interesting for anyone in the trucking business. The relationship between Florida produce and reefer demand is not always straightforward, and what played out over the past several weeks is a good case study in how quickly this market can whipsaw.
In the days and weeks immediately following the freeze events, Florida became one of the hottest reefer origins in the country. Shippers were scrambling to move whatever inventory they could salvage, grocery chains and distribution centers were placing urgent orders, and trucks were in short supply across Central and South Florida. Rates to the East Coast reflected that tightness. Baltimore jumped over 20 percent week-over-week out of Florida at one point. Boston, New York, Chicago, and Philadelphia all saw double-digit rate increases on Florida lanes in the same period. Truck availability moved to Shortage status on most outbound lanes, with even Atlanta showing a Slight Shortage condition.
That demand spike was fueled by the frantic movement of what was left – damaged product being rushed to buyers, growers trying to recover whatever revenue they could before more spoilage set in, and distributors competing to cover their orders while they still had options.
Then the correction hit. Within the following week, every lane out of Central and South Florida posted double-digit declines – drops of 20 to 32 percent across the board, according to DAT’s reefer produce reporting. What happened is straightforward. Once the salvageable product cleared the fields, there was less left to ship. The volume that normally flows out of Florida during peak winter produce season had simply been reduced. Trucks that rushed south to capture the surge now found fewer loads waiting for them. Availability shifted from Shortage to Slight Shortage, rates dropped, and what had looked like an opportunity for carriers with Florida capacity disappeared almost as fast as it formed.
That’s the crunch operators need to understand. The freeze didn’t create sustained freight opportunity out of Florida – it created a short, sharp spike followed by a volume gap that carriers will be navigating for the rest of the quarter.
The bigger story here isn’t the rate spike that already came and went. It’s what happens to reefer volume out of Florida over the next few months as the supply chain absorbs these losses.
Florida is typically one of the most active reefer origins in the country during Q1. Winter vegetables – tomatoes, peppers, squash, sweet corn – are what grocery stores across the Northeast and Midwest rely on to keep shelves stocked during the months when nothing grows further north. When that supply contracts by 40 to 50 percent on some commodities, retailers don’t just go without. They source elsewhere. And the elsewhere usually means Mexico.
That’s already happening. With significant portions of Florida’s squash, bell pepper, and tomato supply damaged or gone, imports from Mexico are expected to rise as retailers scramble to fill the gaps. That shift doesn’t benefit carriers operating out of Florida. It benefits operators working Texas border crossings – McAllen, Laredo, Pharr – where cross-border produce freight moves north. South Texas was already loosening on rates even before Florida’s post-spike correction, but longer term, that corridor could see a volume bump as Mexican supply picks up the slack.
For Florida-based carriers and those who habitually position in the Southeast for winter produce, the practical reality is fewer loads for the remainder of the quarter. The reefer load-to-truck ratio out of Florida had already been trending down for consecutive weeks heading into March. National reefer load posts remained well above prior-year comparisons, but that strength is regional and not evenly distributed. Florida’s share of that volume is smaller right now than it would normally be.
Fuel surcharges remain a factor in all of this. With diesel holding in the mid-$3.00 range nationally and reefer units burning more fuel maintaining temperature in colder transit conditions, the cost to run an empty or lightly loaded truck back out of the Southeast eats into the margins carriers were hoping to capture during peak season.
Florida’s farmers are resilient. They’ve been through hard freezes before, and state and federal relief programs are already being set up to help them recover. But recovery takes time, and the reefer market doesn’t wait. The Q1 picture out of Florida is leaner than anyone planned for, and the ripple effects – from shifted import flows to repositioned capacity – are going to shape how the refrigerated freight market moves through the rest of the first quarter and into spring.
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