AUD/JPY Price Forecast: Steadies near 111.50, bullish bias remains intact above key EMA

The AUD/JPY cross trades on a flat note around 111.45 during the early European session on Tuesday. Hawkish rhetoric from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) could provide some support to the Australian Dollar (AUD) against the Japanese Yen (JPY). 

RBA Governor Michele Bullock said on Tuesday that a rate hike is possible in March if the policy-making board decides ‌inflation expectations are at risk of becoming unanchored, and markets should be aware of that. Markets have priced in nearly a 30% chance of a quarter-point rise at the March meeting, while fully pricing a tightening for May, according to Reuters. 

On the other hand, fears of a prolonged conflict in the Middle East could boost safe-haven currencies such as the JPY and act as a headwind for the cross. US military officials said on Tuesday that they have destroyed command posts of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards as well as Iranian air defense and missile launch sites since the start of the joint Israeli-US offensive on Saturday.

Technical Analysis:

In the daily chart, the near-term bias of AUD/JPY is bullish as price holds well above the rising 100-day exponential moving average near 105.10, confirming an established uptrend. The latest candle sits just under the upper Bollinger Band around 111.93, showing strong upside pressure with volatility expanding as the bands widen. RSI at 66.81 stays above its midline and out of overbought territory, indicating firm yet not exhausted bullish momentum and favoring continuation rather than immediate mean reversion.

Initial resistance emerges at the recent upper Bollinger Band area near 111.90, and a clear break above this zone would expose the next psychological barrier at 112.50. On the downside, first support aligns with the Bollinger middle band and prior congestion around 109.80, followed by stronger demand at the 107.70–108.00 region, where the lower band began to flatten on the last pullback. A deeper correction toward the 105.00–105.10 area would bring price into contact with the rising 100-day EMA, which protects the broader bullish structure as long as it holds.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)