Lottomatica’s 2025 Outlook: Has the Positive Momentum Been Fully Reflected?

Lottomatica 2025: Strong Performance Meets High Expectations

Lottomatica’s 2025 financial results surpassed expectations in terms of profitability, but the market’s response now hinges on whether these achievements were already anticipated and reflected in the share price.

The company’s performance was robust: adjusted net profit reached EUR 369 million, a 45% increase from the previous year. Adjusted EBITDA climbed 21% to EUR 856 million, while revenue grew 12% to EUR 2.255 billion. This acceleration in profitability was the main positive surprise.

However, market expectations were already high. According to Equita, analysts noted that “results and guidance were broadly in line with forecasts,” meaning the company met, but did not significantly exceed, the consensus. The 2026 outlook, projecting revenues between EUR 2.39 and 2.46 billion, reinforced the current growth path rather than raising it.

In summary, Lottomatica delivered better-than-expected earnings, but investors may have already anticipated this outcome. The focus now shifts to future performance. The 2026 EBITDA guidance of EUR 940–980 million (midpoint: EUR 960 million) suggests a 12% increase over 2025, which aligns with existing market expectations. For shares to advance further, Lottomatica will need to prove this guidance is conservative and deliver results at the higher end of the range.

What Drove the Outperformance? Growth Engines and Margin Gains

Lottomatica’s earnings beat was not a one-off event, but the result of strong operational execution and sustainable growth drivers. The market will be watching closely to see if these improvements are lasting.

• Online Gaming: The main engine of growth was online gaming, which saw revenues jump 50% year-over-year to €780.2 million in 2024, with momentum continuing into 2025. Lottomatica achieved a record 32.0% online market share in September 2025, highlighting its market leadership and customer loyalty. Total bets rose 30% to €39.2 billion, reflecting efficient business scaling.
• PWO Integration: The integration of PWO was completed ahead of schedule, with two-thirds of expected synergies realized in 2025. This contributed to margin expansion, as cost savings and revenue enhancements from the acquisition were already reflected in the results. With most synergies captured, future gains will require continued strong execution.
• Capital Allocation: Lottomatica generated significant cash flow, supporting both growth and shareholder returns. In 2025, the company returned over €375 million to shareholders through dividends and buybacks, with operational cash flow reaching €504 million in the first nine months. This demonstrates the company’s ability to balance reinvestment and rewarding shareholders.

Overall, Lottomatica’s 2025 success was built on sustainable foundations: a thriving online business, successful integration, and disciplined financial management. As the company enters a new regulatory phase with a fresh online concession in November 2025, the market will look for these drivers to continue delivering outperformance.

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Valuation and Guidance: Has the Market Priced in the Good News?

With Lottomatica’s strong 2025 results now public and future guidance outlined, the central question is whether the current share price already reflects these positives. The evidence suggests it might.

Equita analysts point out that Lottomatica trades at a forward EV/EBITDA multiple of 7.1–6.3 times. This valuation is reasonable if the company maintains its growth trajectory. The 2026 guidance midpoint implies a 12% EBITDA increase from 2025’s EUR 856 million, which, while solid, is in line with the growth already expected by the market.

This creates a narrow window for upside. The 2026 EBITDA guidance of EUR 940–980 million matches analyst expectations, suggesting the company is maintaining, not raising, the bar. For the stock to appreciate further, Lottomatica must show that its guidance is cautious and deliver results at the upper end of the range.

Shareholder returns are also in focus. Management has authorized a share buyback and is seeking approval for an additional 12.5% repurchase. While this could enhance returns if the stock is undervalued, its effectiveness depends on the market’s view of the company’s prospects. If the stock is fairly valued, the buyback may have a neutral effect. The real impact will come if Lottomatica’s growth story continues to exceed expectations.

In summary, Lottomatica’s valuation appears to reflect the current positive outlook. For shares to move higher, the company must deliver results that surpass the already-established growth path.

Key Catalysts and Risks Ahead

The next phase for Lottomatica will be shaped by upcoming events and potential challenges. The market has absorbed the 2025 results and updated guidance. The next significant milestone is the Q1 2026 earnings call on May 6th, which will provide early indications of progress toward the 12% EBITDA growth target. To widen the expectation gap, management must show momentum toward the upper end of its guidance, not just the midpoint.

The main risk is whether Lottomatica can sustain its online market share gains. The company reached a record 32.0% market share in September 2025, while the overall market grew by 7% year-on-year. If market share growth slows, repeating the impressive 50% revenue increase seen in 2024 could become challenging, putting pressure on future growth expectations.

Investors should monitor two key updates: progress on the share buyback program (with management seeking approval for an additional 12.5% repurchase) and the status of the proposed EUR 0.44 per share dividend. Timely execution of these initiatives would reinforce Lottomatica’s commitment to shareholder returns.

In conclusion, Lottomatica’s path forward is promising but requires continued outperformance. The upcoming May 6th earnings call will be a critical test. Sustained leadership in online gaming and disciplined execution will be essential for the company to deliver results that exceed what the market has already priced in.