Fed’s Kashkari: Too soon to know how Iran war will affect inflation

Neel Kashkari, President of the Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Minneapolis, said that the Iran war impact could have an effect in the monetary policy, but it is too soon to know if it could even impact inflation at the Bloomberg Invest Conference on Tuesday.

Key quotes

Too soon to know how Iran war will affect inflation.

Iran war impact could have monetary policy impact.

Elevated headline inflation bears watching given recent inflation path.

Had thought monetary policy was in a good place.

Fed needs to see how big and long Iran shock will be.

Uncertainty about tariff outlook has increased.

Doesn't think latest round of tariffs will have fresh inflation impact.

Doesn't see much chance to substantially increase level of tariffs.

Needs more data to know what Fed should do with rates this year.

The labor market is in a decent place.

Fed has to hit 2% inflation target.

Strength of economy suggests higher neutral rate.

Ahead of Iran attack, Fed job and inflation mandates felt more stable.

There is not a lot of underlying demand for labor.

Inflation is still too high but trending down.

Near term AI investment probably pushing up neutral rate.

Limited lessons from 1990s about navigating productivity boom.

Not hearing a lot from business that more inflation is coming.

Expects inflation pressures to wane this year, most interested in trajectory.

Expects housing inflation pressures to moderate.

Inflation heading in right direction until Iran war arrived.

March Fed forecasts will have more uncertainty about outlook.”