Saia experienced a slower decrease in tonnage during February

Saia Sees Slower Tonnage Decline in February as Shipments Rise

Saia, a less-than-truckload carrier based in Johns Creek, Georgia, experienced a smaller year-over-year drop in tonnage for February, with daily shipment volumes turning positive compared to the previous year’s challenging results.

According to the company’s Tuesday announcement, February’s tonnage fell by 2.7% from the prior year, marking an improvement over January’s 7% decrease. This shift was largely due to a 0.3% uptick in daily shipments, though this was outweighed by a 3% reduction in average shipment weight.

Both January and February faced tough comparisons against strong double-digit growth in 2025. When looking at a two-year period, Saia’s (NASDAQ: SAIA) tonnage was up 9.5% in February and 6.8% in January. The company’s year-over-year comparisons are expected to become less challenging starting in April, with growth slowing to 4.4% and turning negative by May.

Saia’s management previously noted that January’s 2.1% year-over-year decline in shipments would have shown growth if not for severe winter weather. Without the storms, January’s tonnage would have been down by about 4% to 4.5%.

Source: Company reports

Industry Indicators Show Positive Momentum

This update comes on the heels of encouraging manufacturing data released Monday. The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) registered at 52.4 in February, slightly below January’s figure but still indicating expansion (readings above 50 signal growth). This marks the second consecutive month of positive PMI readings after more than three years of mostly negative results.

The new orders component of the PMI, which often predicts future activity, reached 55.8. Historically, changes in PMI data tend to precede shifts in LTL volumes by several months.

Pricing and Margins

While Saia does not share revenue figures in its midquarter updates, it reported that contract renewal pricing rose by 5.9% in February, following a 6.6% increase in January. For the fourth quarter, contractual rate hikes averaged 4.9%.

Typically, the company sees a sequential margin decline of 30 to 50 basis points from the fourth to the first quarter. However, this year, Saia expects to outperform that trend, partly due to a lower starting point—its adjusted operating ratio was 91.3% in the fourth quarter and improved to 91.1% in the first quarter of 2025.

Outlook and Expansion

Looking ahead to 2026, Saia projects a year-over-year margin improvement of 100 to 200 basis points, with the higher end depending on moderate gains in volume and yield. Over the past three years, the company has launched 39 new terminals, solidifying its status as a national carrier. Although these new facilities are profitable, they have slightly weighed on margins in recent quarters.

As of 2:26 p.m. EST on Tuesday, SAIA shares were up 0.4%, while the S&P 500 was down 0.8%.