Bitget UEX Daily | Trump Pledges to Safeguard Crude Oil Transport; Oil Prices Surge and Pull Back; Gold and Silver Plunge as Dollar Strengthens (March 04, 2026)

I. Hotspot News

Fed Dynamics

Challenges Abound Before Voss Takes Helm, High Oil Prices May Hinder Trump's Rate Cut Aspirations

• Kevin Voss faces multiple hurdles before leading the Fed, with U.S. economic trends and Fed officials' views diverging from White House expectations, further reinforced by Middle East conflict-driven oil prices hitting four-year highs, strengthening policy caution.
• Most Fed officials believe inflation remains high and employment stable, with no need for hasty further rate cuts; some colleagues question Voss's tech revolution-centered rate cut logic and his balance sheet reduction commitments; the Senate has yet to schedule nomination hearings.
• This could lead to a more conservative Fed rate path, enhancing market uncertainty, potentially curbing stock rebounds and elevating bond yields.

International Commodities

Iran Claims Control of Strait of Hormuz, Trump Provides Shipping Safeguards

• Iran's Revolutionary Guard Navy declares full control of the strait, with multiple tankers ignoring war warnings and being shelled and burned; Trump directs development finance companies to offer low-cost political risk insurance and, if needed, naval escorts for tankers to ensure global energy free flow.
• Over a dozen tankers hit, Qatar's world's largest LNG plant remains shut, causing European natural gas futures to surge over 60% in two days and 32% in a single day; Goldman Sachs urgently raises European April gas price forecast to 55 euros/MWh, with Asian buyers snapping up supplies disrupting summer stockpiling logic.
• Concerns over energy supply disruptions intensify global inflation pressures, amplifying oil price volatility, which may indirectly weaken gold's upward momentum and affect emerging market economic stability.

Macroeconomic Policy

Trump Says He Can Tolerate Short-Term Oil Price Rises, Prioritizing Elimination of Iranian Threat

• Trump states he can endure temporary oil price increases to prioritize destroying Iran's "imminent" threat, with U.S. gasoline prices rising sharply due to supply uncertainty, while revealing Iran's arsenal is nearly depleted and willingness to cooperate with surviving officials.
• Military actions have destroyed most of Iran's navy and air targets, with missile launch capabilities weakening; U.S. reserves are ample and production accelerating, defense firms receiving emergency orders for full-speed operations.
• This stance may prolong the conflict duration, amplifying energy market uncertainty, potentially boosting dollar demand and suppressing global economic growth expectations.

II. Market Review

Commodities & Forex Performance

• Spot Gold: Slight rise of 0.97% to $5,140/oz, with yesterday's change exceeding 4.36%, lightly pressured by the dollar.
• Spot Silver: Up 1.52% to $83.2/oz, with yesterday's change exceeding 8.15%, significant pullback amid liquidity tightening.
• WTI Crude: Up 0.72% to $75.1/bbl, with yesterday's change exceeding 5.31%, driven by geopolitical tensions intensifying supply concerns.
• Dollar Index: Up 1.07% to 99.17, driven by safe-haven liquidity demand.

Cryptocurrency Performance

• BTC: Down 1.2% to $68,103, continuous volatility influenced by risk aversion.
• ETH: Down 2.67% to $1,975, testing the $2,000 psychological level.
• Total Crypto Market Cap: Down 1.2% to $2.41 trillion, driven by macro uncertainties prompting capital outflows.
• Market Liquidation Situation: 24H total network liquidations about $375 million, with long positions liquidated about $247 million.
• Bitget BTC/USDT liquidation map shows: Current price around 68,073, dense long liquidation zone below at 67,800–66,500, potential chain reaction of long stampede if broken. Above, short leverage piled up at 69,000–70,500, easy to trigger short squeeze and amplify volatility if broken upward.

U.S. Stock Index Performance

• Dow Jones: Down 0.83%, continuous narrowing amid Trump's safeguard statement.
• S&P 500: Down 0.94%, energy stocks providing buffer in volatility.
• Nasdaq: Down 1.02%, dragged by tech and chip sectors.

Tech Giants Dynamics

• Microsoft: Up over 1.35%, benefiting from stable cloud service demand.
• Amazon: Slight rise of 0.16%, supported by e-commerce resilience.
• Meta: Slight rise of 0.23%, relatively steady ad business.
• Nvidia: Down over 1.33%, chip supply chain concerns.
• Alphabet (Google): Down nearly 1%, pressure from search and AI competition.
• Apple: Down 0.37%, MacBook price hike may affect consumer wait-and-see.
• Tesla: Down 2.7%, EV chip supply potentially impacted by Samsung's U.S. Taylor mass production delay. Overall, tech giants showed mixed performance, mainly due to geopolitical conflicts amplifying chip and supply chain risks, with defensive stocks like Microsoft rising against the trend.

Sector Movement Observations

Gold Stocks Down Over 7%

• Representative Stocks: Newmont, down over 7%; Barrick Gold, down over 8%.
• Driving Factors: Gold price plunge combined with dollar strength suppression, liquidity tightening exacerbating sell-off.

Silver Stocks Down Over 10%

• Representative Stocks: First Majestic Silver, down over 10%; Coeur Mining, down over 10%.
• Driving Factors: Silver price plunge amid industrial demand concerns, safe-haven sentiment shifting to dollar.

AI Application Software Stocks Up Over 2%

• Representative Stocks: ServiceNow, up over 3%; Adobe, up over 3%.
• Driving Factors: Strong AI demand, resisting macro uncertainties, providing growth buffer.

Popular Chinese Concept Stocks Down Over 2%

• Representative Stocks: Alibaba, down over 4%; NIO, down over 2%.
• Driving Factors: Global risk aversion spilling to emerging markets, supply chain disruption concerns amplified.

III. In-Depth Stock Analysis

1.MongoDB - Q1 Guidance Falls Short of Expectations

Event Overview: MongoDB releases Q1 revenue guidance of $659 million to $664 million, adjusted EPS of $1.15 to $1.19, both below analyst expectations of $662.5 million and $1.2, leading to a stock plunge over 22% to a six-month low, with prior software stock sell-off spreading, highlighting industry valuation pressures. Market Interpretation: JPMorgan co-head warns software stock selling pressure may persist, U.S. stocks entering "sell first, buy later" mode, viewing current decline as not entirely rational but potentially spreading to other sectors, institutions focusing on consumer demand and external uncertainties. Investment Insight: Avoid tech stock pullback risks in the short term, wait for subsequent earnings to confirm demand recovery before entering.

2. Paramount Skydance - Rating Downgraded to Junk Level

Event Overview: Fitch downgrades Paramount Skydance and its subsidiaries' long-term issuer default rating from investment-grade edge BBB- to speculative BB+, placed on negative watch, with post-merger net debt at $79 billion, risk resilience significantly weakened in a highly competitive and structurally changing media environment, stock down nearly 7% yesterday. Market Interpretation: Institutions worry about unclear transaction terms, financing, and deleveraging measures, this downgrade reflects fragile financial structure, vulnerable to market fluctuations, highlighting media industry transformation challenges. Investment Insight: Short-term stock pressure, suggest waiting for financing details to clarify before assessing long-term potential.

3. Pinterest - Elliott Injects $1 Billion

Event Overview: Activist investor Elliott injects $1 billion into Pinterest to support its multi-year stock repurchase plan, board approves additional $35 billion repurchase program, and plans to use extra cash for up to $500 million more in repurchases, driving stock up over 9% yesterday. Market Interpretation: Institutions view this as a positive signal to enhance shareholder value, repurchase scale showing management confidence, especially in intensified social platform competition, providing valuation support. Investment Insight: Repurchases boost mid-term confidence, consider holding to observe user growth.

4. AutoZone - Q2 Sales Below Expectations

Event Overview: Auto parts retailer AutoZone reports Q2 sales growth over 8% to about $4.27 billion, below analyst average expectation of $4.31 billion; net profit down nearly 4% to $469 million, EPS $27.63 slightly above expected $27.13, stock down over 6% yesterday, impacted by tariffs, winter storms, and auto market instability. Market Interpretation: Despite stable consumer demand, external factors exacerbate performance volatility, institutions emphasize monitoring supply chain and economic cycle risks. Investment Insight: High short-term volatility, long-term benefit from auto repair demand recovery.

5. Ross Stores - Annual Guidance Exceeds Expectations

Event Overview: Discount retailer Ross Stores releases annual performance guidance exceeding market expectations, after-hours stock up over 6%, reflecting retail consumption resilience and inventory management optimization, prior fiscal quarter strong performance supporting optimistic outlook. Market Interpretation: Analysts believe guidance shows retail recovery signs, discount model advantages prominent in inflationary environment, institutions raising target prices. Investment Insight: Consumption sector opportunities emerging, suitable for allocating defensive retail stocks.

IV. Cryptocurrency Project Dynamics

• On-chain data shows the U.S. government transferred about 0.3346 BTC, worth about $23,000, from a wallet marked as related to seized funds from "Miguel Villanueva".
• According to Onchain Lens monitoring, in the past 10 hours, Circle minted an additional 1 billion USDC on Solana. Additionally, influenced by geopolitical tensions pushing up oil prices and weakening rate cut expectations, Mizuho Bank analysts raised Circle's target price from $90 to $100, maintaining a "neutral" rating. Analysts believe changes in interest rate expectations may impact Circle's valuation multiples more than short-term revenue boosts.
• U.S. President Trump posted on Truth Social that stablecoin legislation GENIUS bill is being threatened and undermined by banks.
• U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Chairman Mike Selig stated the agency will release policies in the coming weeks to provide guidance for compliant crypto perpetual contracts in the U.S., and promote "professional-grade" perpetual futures launch in the U.S.
• MARA Holdings disclosed in its latest 10-K filing to the SEC that the company has expanded its 2026 digital asset management strategy from "only selling BTC mined that year" to allowing sales of accumulated BTC on its balance sheet.
• According to Onchain Lens monitoring, in the past 10 hours, BlackRock withdrew 4,376 BTC ($298 million) from Coinbase, and deposited 567 BTC ($38.05 million) and 7,553 ETH ($14.7 million) into Coinbase.

V. Today's Market Calendar

Data Release Schedule

Important Event Previews

March 4 (Wednesday)

• U.S. releases February ADP employment numbers, S&P Global Services PMI final, February ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI;
• Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang will participate in a fireside chat at Morgan Stanley's TMT (Technology, Media & Telecom) conference in San Francisco;
• After-hours: Chip giant Broadcom (AVGO) releases earnings; continuing discussions on U.S. market AI investment frenzy.(5 stars)

• After-hours: Cybersecurity stock (CrowdStrike) releases earnings.

March 5 (Thursday)

• 21:30 ET Weekly initial jobless claims released, 3:00 ET Fed releases Beige Book on economic conditions.

March 6 (Friday)

• 21:30 ET February unemployment rate, seasonally adjusted nonfarm payrolls released, expected addition of 60,000 jobs.(5 stars)

Institutional Views:

U.S. stocks on March 3 were dominated by risk aversion sentiment, with indices like the Dow plunging early then narrowing losses, but energy stocks benefited from oil prices up 4.7%; precious metals gold fell 4.41% but gained safe-haven support, institutions viewing $5,200 as key level, short-term may test rebound; crude influenced by Hormuz disruption risks rose to $74.56, Brent challenging above $80, potentially exacerbating inflation; forex dollar index up 1.07% to 99.42, liquidity demand strengthening its position, suppressing emerging currencies. Overall market volatility amplified, suggest allocating defensive assets and monitoring conflict dynamics.

Disclaimer: The above content is compiled by AI search, with human verification for publication only, and does not constitute any investment advice.