CF Industries' shares surge 37% over the past three months: Discover the reasons

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. Sees Significant Stock Surge

Over the past quarter, shares of CF Industries Holdings, Inc. have soared by 36.5%. This impressive performance stands in stark contrast to the Zacks Fertilizers sector, which experienced a 40.7% drop during the same period. CF Industries also outpaced the S&P 500, which saw a modest decline of about 0.2%.

Source: Zacks Investment Research

Key Drivers Behind CF Industries’ Growth

Several factors have contributed to CF Industries’ recent success. The company is benefiting from robust global demand for nitrogen fertilizers, fueled by strong activity in the agricultural sector. After facing pandemic-related setbacks, industrial demand for nitrogen has rebounded.

Looking ahead, the need for nitrogen worldwide is expected to remain high, supported by improved industrial activity and favorable conditions for farmers. In the United States, the large number of acres planted with corn is likely to further boost nitrogen demand. North America’s positive farm economics are also playing a role. Additionally, CF Industries is seeing heightened demand for urea in major markets like Brazil and India, both of which are projected to continue as leading global importers due to strong domestic consumption.

During its fourth-quarter earnings call, CF Industries highlighted a positive short-term outlook for the nitrogen market, citing strong demand and limited supply. Inventory levels remain below historical norms, especially in India and Brazil, which are expected to drive continued robust urea consumption.

Rising nitrogen prices have also played a significant role in increasing CF Industries’ revenue. In the fourth quarter, the company’s net sales climbed approximately 23% year-over-year to $1.87 billion. Most of its core products saw higher average selling prices, thanks to ongoing supply constraints and strong global demand. These favorable pricing conditions are expected to persist, supporting future growth.

CF Industries is also focused on returning value to shareholders through its solid cash flow. In the fourth quarter, operating cash flow reached $539 million, marking a 28.3% increase from the previous year. The company repurchased 4.1 million shares for $340 million in the fourth quarter alone, and bought back a total of 16.6 million shares for $1.34 billion in 2025. In total, $1.7 billion was returned to shareholders in 2025. After completing a $3 billion share repurchase program in October 2025, CF Industries launched a new $2 billion buyback plan, with $1.7 billion remaining at the end of 2025.

CF’s Current Zacks Rank and Notable Alternatives

At present, CF Industries holds a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).

Investors seeking higher-ranked options in the Basic Materials sector might consider:

• Albemarle Corporation (ALB) – Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy)
• Compania de Minas Buenaventura S.A.A. (BVN) – Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy)
• Balchem Corporation (BCPC) – Zacks Rank #2 (Buy)

Albemarle’s projected earnings for 2026 are $7.87 per share, representing a year-over-year increase of 1,096.2%. The company has surpassed earnings expectations in three of the last four quarters, with an average surprise of 57.8%.

Buenaventura’s 2026 earnings are estimated at $3.45 per share, up 4.6% from the previous year. The company has exceeded consensus estimates in each of the past four quarters, averaging an 80.4% earnings surprise.

Balchem’s 2026 earnings are forecasted at $5.47 per share, a 6.2% increase year-over-year. Over the past 60 days, this estimate has been revised upward by 1.1%.

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