The US-Israel war with Iran triggers an energy crisis, severely damaging the global supply structure

⑴ The Middle East energy supply is experiencing a historic shock. As the US and Israel escalate military actions against Iran, energy production and exports from Qatar to Iraq have suffered widespread disruptions, posing a severe challenge to global markets. ⑵ Crude oil supply has taken a heavy hit. As the second largest oil producer in OPEC, Iraq has already cut nearly 1.5 million barrels per day in production. Officials warn that if exports cannot be restored, up to 3 million barrels per day of production may have to be shut down in the coming days. In January, Iraq's output was about 4.1 million barrels per day, accounting for roughly 4% of global supply. Multiple companies in the Kurdish region of Iraq have suspended production, and in February, the region exported 200,000 barrels per day to Turkey via pipeline. ⑶ The natural gas market has also been severely impacted. On Monday, Qatar suspended operations at its LNG facilities, which are among the largest liquefied natural gas plants in the world and supply about 20% of global LNG. On Tuesday, Qatar Energy also halted some downstream production and on Wednesday announced that LNG shipments had encountered force majeure. ⑷ The Strait of Hormuz is paralyzed. This critical waterway, responsible for about 20% of global oil and LNG supply, has seen traffic come to a near standstill. Senior officials of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard have announced the closure of the strait and warned that any ship attempting to pass will be fired upon. Major marine insurance companies are canceling war risk coverage for the area. Although Trump has stated that the US military can provide escort and promised political risk insurance, shipowners and analysts remain skeptical.