Billionaire Investor Cuts Amazon And Starts Fresh With Alibaba

Hedge fund billionaire Daniel Loeb shuffled his stake in the broadline retail industry at Third Point LLC in the fourth quarter of FY25.

The investor trimmed its stake in one e-commerce retail giant and bought a stake in another.

Loeb opened a new position in Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (NYSE:BABA), acquiring 825,000 shares in the quarter.

Meanwhile, the fund trimmed its position in Amazon.com Inc (NASDAQ:AMZN) from roughly 2.81 million shares to 2.165 million shares.

Amazon: Recent Key Events

• Amazon posted fourth-quarter revenue of $213.39 billion, topping estimates, while EPS of $1.95 narrowly missed expectations. First quarter sales are projected at $173.5 billion–$178.5 billion (up 11%–15% YoY), roughly in line with forecasts.
• The company plans to raise capex to $200 billion, expand same-day prescription delivery to 4,500 U.S. cities by end-2026, and discontinue its Blue Jay warehouse robot.
• Separately, a Washington court allowed negligence lawsuits to proceed, an AWS UAE data center fire disrupted regional services, and Amazon committed $50 billion to OpenAI under a new multi-year partnership.

Alibaba: Recent Key Events

• Alibaba is facing a leadership shakeup in its artificial intelligence division just as the company accelerates its push into AI models, tools, and infrastructure.
• The company said it will spend 3 billion yuan ($432 million) to promote its Qwen AI app during the Spring Festival, rolling out red-packet giveaways to drive mass-market adoption.
• The company is consolidating its AI efforts under a single brand while expanding its tools and infrastructure to strengthen its position in the fast-growing artificial intelligence market.
• Alibaba's cloud division launched a new AI-powered coding platform that provides affordable access to several leading Chinese AI models.
• Alibaba Cloud Model Studio launched its most advanced Coding Plan yet, expanding API access to four major open-source models, Qwen3.5, GLM-5, MiniMax M2.5, and Kimi K2.5, under a single subscription.

Technical Analysis

Alibaba is trading 13.9% below its 20-day SMA and 16.9% below its 100-day SMA, a setup that typically signals the intermediate trend is still pointed lower. Shares are up 2.82% over the past 12 months, but the stock is currently positioned closer to its 52-week low than its 52-week high.

RSI is at 23.65, which is oversold and often associated with late-stage selling pressure or a potential snapback attempt if buyers step in.

• Key Resistance: $156.50
• Key Support: $117.50

Earnings & Analyst Outlook

The countdown is on: BABA is set to report earnings on March 17, 2026.

• EPS Estimate: $1.73 (Down from $2.93)
• Revenue Estimate: $41.26 Billion (Up from $38.38 Billion)
• Valuation: P/E of 17.8x (Indicates fair valuation)

Analyst Consensus & Recent Actions: The stock carries a Buy Rating with an average price target of $188.69. Recent analyst moves include:

• Jefferies: Buy (Lowers Target to $225.00) (Jan. 8)
• Freedom Capital Markets: Downgraded to Hold (Jan. 6)
• Citigroup: Buy (Raises Target to $225.00) (Nov. 26, 2025)

Image created using artificial intelligence via Midjourney.