MSFT Structure Update — 400 Supply Turning Into Demand
By:TradingView
Key Levels
Demand: 400
Immediate Supply: 411
Targets: 421 → 430
Technical Structure
The previous 405 overhead supply, marked by my AVWAP from the Feb 5 dip buyers, appears to have been largely absorbed. New supply has now migrated lower toward 400, where more recent participants became trapped during the breakdown.
Price had tested this level multiple times before the breakdown, which likely forced weaker hands out of their positions.
Since then, price has been following the bottom support AVWAP and today reclaimed the 400 level. At the same time, OBV is making a higher swing while CMF continues trending upward, suggesting capital flows are gradually improving.
With the previous supply largely cleared, 400 now has the potential to act as a demand zone, where buyers may step back in on pullbacks.
The next immediate overhead supply sits around 411, which has migrated down from the previous 424 supply zone. This likely represents participants from the 480 distribution area who remain underwater, so another wave of selling pressure around this level would not be surprising.
Trade Plan
Watching for rejection near 411, followed by stabilization between 400–411.
If MSFT consolidates within this range, it would suggest the lower supply zone has been cleared.
A high-volume breakout above 411 would serve as confirmation for entry.
Targets: 421 → 430
Invalidation: Loss of 400
Macro Context
Today’s oil price surge pushed both 2Y and 10Y yields higher, likely driven by inflation concerns. At the same time, credit spreads have widened and market breadth has narrowed, signaling a broader risk-off environment.
Although tech has held up relatively well today, sustained upside will likely require improvement in the broader market backdrop.
Demand: 400
Immediate Supply: 411
Targets: 421 → 430
Technical Structure
The previous 405 overhead supply, marked by my AVWAP from the Feb 5 dip buyers, appears to have been largely absorbed. New supply has now migrated lower toward 400, where more recent participants became trapped during the breakdown.
Price had tested this level multiple times before the breakdown, which likely forced weaker hands out of their positions.
Since then, price has been following the bottom support AVWAP and today reclaimed the 400 level. At the same time, OBV is making a higher swing while CMF continues trending upward, suggesting capital flows are gradually improving.
With the previous supply largely cleared, 400 now has the potential to act as a demand zone, where buyers may step back in on pullbacks.
The next immediate overhead supply sits around 411, which has migrated down from the previous 424 supply zone. This likely represents participants from the 480 distribution area who remain underwater, so another wave of selling pressure around this level would not be surprising.
Trade Plan
Watching for rejection near 411, followed by stabilization between 400–411.
If MSFT consolidates within this range, it would suggest the lower supply zone has been cleared.
A high-volume breakout above 411 would serve as confirmation for entry.
Targets: 421 → 430
Invalidation: Loss of 400
Macro Context
Today’s oil price surge pushed both 2Y and 10Y yields higher, likely driven by inflation concerns. At the same time, credit spreads have widened and market breadth has narrowed, signaling a broader risk-off environment.
Although tech has held up relatively well today, sustained upside will likely require improvement in the broader market backdrop.
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Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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