Shipping in the Strait of Hormuz may be disrupted for months, with the threat from Iranian drones becoming a key factor

1. Since the US and Israel launched attacks against Iran, Iran has fired hundreds of missiles and over a thousand drones at Gulf countries. Intelligence sources and military analysts say that Iran's drone attacks could disrupt shipping in the Strait of Hormuz for several months, but it remains unclear how long Iran's missile stockpile can last. 2. Iran is one of the world's major drone producers, with the industrial capacity to manufacture about 10,000 drones per month. Estimates of its missile stockpile vary greatly—Israeli military claims about 2,500 missiles, while other analysts believe the number is around 6,000. The supply of missiles and launch devices will be key factors in determining the course of the war. 3. Blocking the Strait of Hormuz is one of Iran's main objectives. After attacking six merchant ships, shipping in this crucial channel—through which one-fifth of the world's crude oil and liquefied natural gas passes—has nearly come to a halt. Experts point out that Iran only needs to demonstrate its ability to hit a few tankers, and the rest can be left to the resulting anxiety. 4. Western intelligence sources say that due to long-term arms transfers to Hezbollah and the Houthi forces, Iran's missile stockpile may have been significantly reduced. If missiles and drones are depleted, Iran may deploy naval mines—it possesses 5,000 to 6,000 mines. Once deployed, clearing them would take months, and the disruption to shipping would have long-lasting effects.