Morning Bid: ’Bump on the road’ or gaping chasm?

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Rocky Swift 

Is the crisis in the Middle East and its fallout on global markets just a "bump on the road" or does it portend a long period of uncertainty for global trade?

The rosier take was voiced by U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright, who told Fox News that the conflict with Iran, which has killed hundreds and paralysed oil shipments in the region, would be a "small price" to pay to achieve America’s military goals.

Less optimistic was Kristalina Georgieva of the International Monetary Fund, who warned of a prolonged period of flux as the war, kicked off by U.S. and Israeli air strikes that killed Iran’s supreme leader, tests global economies.

There were no fresh signals of a diplomatic off-ramp to the hostilities or improved security for ships trying their luck across the Strait of Hormuz. Instead the Republican-led Senate voted to block a resolution aiming to stop the air war on Iran, which launched a fresh wave of missiles at Israel.

Even so, markets seemed split. Asian shares surged, led by a recovery in South Korea’s KOSPI. Oil prices continued their climb, while gold, the classic safe-haven asset, also rose.

China’s closely watched National People’s Congress got underway with a host of announcements and plans. The nation’s shares reacted positively to a slightly slower growth target that signalled a shift towards rebalancing the economy and boosting consumption. 

Stock futures for Europe and the U.S. started off with gains before reversing course and pointing to declines when those markets open.

Key developments that could influence markets on Thursday:

* Euro zone retail sales for January

* European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde speaks

* France - industrial output data for January; reopening of 10-year, 17-year and 20-year government debt auctions

* United Kingdom – Reopening of 3-year government debt auction

* U.S. data on weekly jobless claims, Challenger layoffs (February), productivity (Q4, prelim), and import prices (January)

* Speeches by Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee and Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman