Barclays: The Bank of Thailand’s rate-cutting cycle may have ended, and interest rates are expected to remain at 1.0% for a long time.

(1) Barclays economists have released a report stating that the Bank of Thailand's rate-cutting cycle may have ended. Unless the economic outlook deteriorates significantly, the Monetary Policy Committee is expected to keep the policy rate unchanged at 1.0% throughout 2027. (2) The economists added that policymakers may be concerned about inflation remaining too low for an extended period. The Bank of Thailand "currently does not seem overly concerned" about the potential oil price shock triggered by Middle Eastern conflicts. (3) Barclays analysis points out that the recent surge in oil prices is unlikely to have a substantial impact on Thai inflation. It is expected that for every $10 increase in crude oil prices, there will be only a moderate impact of about 0.2 percentage points on the Consumer Price Index.