Trump promised to ensure unrestricted energy movement from the Middle East, and now he has seven days to demonstrate results before costs surge once more.

U.S. Efforts to Safeguard Middle East Energy Shipments Face Tight Deadline

President Donald Trump’s recent commitment to provide insurance and naval escorts for oil and gas tankers traveling to and from the Middle East has helped prevent dramatic price increases so far. However, according to energy and legal experts, he has only about a week to demonstrate real progress before commodity prices are likely to surge again.

Establishing a government-backed emergency insurance program for hundreds of tankers is already a complex challenge. Adding the responsibility of defending these vessels from missile and drone threats introduces even greater uncertainty, specialists warn.

“If a solution isn’t found within a week, the oil markets will grow doubtful and restless, which could drive prices even higher,” explained Dan Pickering, founder of Pickering Energy Partners. “That kind of market reaction would intensify the pressure on the U.S. administration.”

Roughly one-fifth of the world’s crude oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) passes through the narrow Strait of Hormuz, which is currently obstructed due to conflict in Iran. Qatar has already halted LNG output, and Iraq has significantly reduced oil production because of limited storage capacity. Other Gulf nations may soon follow suit.

Restarting these operations is not immediate—it can take weeks to restore normal output. Typically, about 150 ships transit the strait daily, but now only a handful are making the journey. Most insurers are unwilling to underwrite such high-risk voyages, and several tankers have already suffered damage in the area. For the limited insurance that is available, premiums have soared to nearly five times their usual rates.

“Even with insurance, would you actually feel secure making the trip?” Pickering asked. “And if there are naval escorts, how can you be sure they’ll prevent drone attacks?”

Despite these challenges, Pickering believes that, given America’s focus on keeping energy affordable, it’s only a matter of time before tanker traffic resumes through the strait.

On March 3, Trump announced that the U.S. would provide “political risk insurance” for tankers and, if needed, deploy the Navy to escort ships through the strait.

The U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (DFC) stated it is prepared to activate its political risk insurance and guarantee programs, though it did not provide specifics or a timeline.

White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said on March 4 that the DFC would offer insurance at a “very reasonable price,” and that naval escorts would be used “if necessary and when appropriate.”

Although Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps claims to have “complete control” over the strategic waterway, Leavitt responded that “Iran will no longer be controlling the Strait of Hormuz and restricting the free flow of energy.”

Uncertainties and Next Steps

Leavitt noted, “I can’t promise a specific timeline, but both the Department of War and the Department of Energy are actively working on the issue.”

How the Insurance Program Could Function

According to Özlem Gürses, a maritime and insurance law professor at Tulane University, determining the insurance premiums and policy details will take time, given the enormous financial stakes and risks involved.

She suggested that the government might adopt a model similar to the terrorism insurance framework established after 9/11, involving public-private partnerships and government subsidies to keep premiums manageable for companies.

“The risks are so significant that it’s difficult to predict how long it will take to implement everything,” Gürses said. “There are still many unknowns.”

Even with government support, war risk insurance will remain expensive. The key question is whether the costs can be kept low enough to justify the risks and encourage shipping companies to participate, she added.

Major shipping company Maersk, for example, has already announced a temporary halt to cargo bookings in the Middle East.

Amena Bakr, head of Middle Eastern energy insights at Kpler, expressed skepticism about Trump’s plan, stating that their analysts doubt the effectiveness of vessel escorts, as ships would remain highly vulnerable to Iranian missile strikes. Even if escorts are successful, she said, the costs would be prohibitive.

However, international cooperation may be on the horizon. French President Emmanuel Macron announced that a coalition is being formed to combine resources, including military assets, to restore and secure vital maritime routes for the global economy.

Market Impact

Meanwhile, natural gas prices in Asia and Europe—which rely heavily on Qatari supplies—have reached their highest levels in years. Global crude oil prices have climbed nearly 35% since the start of the year. In the U.S., the average price for a gallon of regular gasoline has risen from $2.73 in early January to $3.20 in March, with further increases expected.