Pfizer (PFE) Has Fallen 0.6% Since Its Most Recent Earnings Release: Is a Recovery Possible?

Pfizer's Recent Earnings Overview and Market Performance

Since Pfizer's last earnings announcement about a month ago, the company's stock has dipped by 0.6%, lagging behind the S&P 500 index.

Investors are now questioning whether this downward momentum will persist as the next earnings report approaches, or if Pfizer is poised for a turnaround. To better understand the situation, let's first review the highlights from the most recent quarterly results and examine the key factors influencing the company's performance.

Fourth Quarter 2025: Earnings and Revenue Highlights

For the fourth quarter of 2025, Pfizer posted adjusted earnings of $0.66 per share, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.57. This marks a 5% increase from the prior year, attributed to cost reductions and improved gross margins.

Total revenue reached $17.6 billion, a slight 1% decrease from the same period last year, or a 3% drop on an operational basis. This decline was mainly due to a 40% operational decrease in sales of COVID-19 products, Comirnaty and Paxlovid. Despite this, overall revenue exceeded the consensus estimate of $16.84 billion.

Sales of products outside the COVID-19 portfolio grew by 9% operationally, driven by strong performances from Eliquis, the Prevnar line, Vyndaqel, oncology biosimilars, and Abrysvo. For the full year, non-COVID product sales increased by 6%.

International revenue fell by 4% operationally to $8.44 billion, while U.S. revenue slipped 1% to $9.1 billion.

Adjusted selling, informational, and administrative expenses dropped by 5% to $4.08 billion, reflecting ongoing efficiency initiatives and reduced marketing costs. Meanwhile, adjusted R&D spending rose 4% to $3.12 billion, as Pfizer invested in pipeline development and digital capabilities, particularly in oncology and obesity research.

Business Segment Performance

• Primary Care: Revenue declined 13% operationally to $7.94 billion.
• Specialty Care: Sales increased by 6% to $4.77 billion.
• Oncology: Revenue climbed 8% to $4.44 billion.

Primary Care Details

Eliquis alliance and direct sales rose 8% to $2.02 billion, supported by global demand and favorable U.S. pricing, though offset by inventory and pricing pressures in some markets. This figure fell short of the consensus estimate of $2.14 billion.

The Prevnar vaccine family generated $1.71 billion in global revenue, up 8%, beating expectations. U.S. sales increased 2%, while international sales surged 18%.

Comirnaty, developed with BioNTech, brought in $2.27 billion, a 35% year-over-year decrease due to reduced vaccine recommendations and lower demand. However, this still exceeded the expected $2.0 billion.

Paxlovid sales were $218 million, down 70% from the previous year, missing the consensus estimate of $289 million due to declining infection rates and reduced government purchases.

Nurtec ODT/Vydura contributed $405 million, a 3% increase year-over-year.

Abrysvo, Pfizer’s RSV vaccine, achieved $481 million in sales, up 136% operationally, driven by strong uptake in the U.S. adult market and new international launches, though U.S. sales were limited by vaccination recommendations.

Specialty Care Highlights

The Vyndaqel product family earned $1.69 billion, up 7%, fueled by higher diagnosis and treatment rates, especially in the U.S. and Europe, and improved affordability. Lower U.S. net prices due to increased manufacturer discounts and new contracts partially offset gains. Vyndaqel sales surpassed the consensus estimate of $1.66 billion.

Xeljanz sales dropped 8% to $324 million, and Enbrel revenue fell 5% to $180 million. Cibinqo sales rose 22% to $78 million.

Oncology Segment

Ibrance revenue declined 7% to $1.04 billion, impacted by U.S. policy changes and generic competition abroad, but slightly exceeded expectations.

Among the antibody-drug conjugates acquired from Seagen, Adcetris sales fell 23% to $220 million due to increased competition, while Padcev sales grew 15% to $508 million, driven by market share gains in metastatic urothelial cancer, though this missed estimates. Tukysa and Tivdak sales declined 9% and 12%, respectively.

Xtandi alliance revenue increased 5% to $592 million. Inlyta sales slipped 4% to $235 million. Lorbrena sales jumped 45% to $282 million, thanks to market share gains in ALK-positive metastatic NSCLC, partially offset by lower prices. Braftovi/Mektovi sales rose 16% to $197 million, and Elrexfio generated $70 million, up 30% year-over-year.

Oncology biosimilar revenue surged 76% to $369 million.

Full-Year 2025 Financial Results

For 2025, Pfizer reported $62.6 billion in sales, a 2% decrease both reported and operationally, but above the consensus estimate of $61.94 billion and slightly higher than the company’s guidance.

Adjusted earnings per share for the year were $3.22, up 4% from the prior year, beating both the consensus estimate of $3.13 and the guided range of $3.00 to $3.15.

2026 Financial Outlook

In December, Pfizer reaffirmed its 2026 guidance alongside its Q4 results. The company projects total revenue between $59.5 billion and $62.5 billion, reflecting a decrease from 2025 due to lower COVID-19 product sales and the impact of patent expirations, which are expected to reduce revenue by about $1.5 billion. Excluding COVID-19 products and patent losses, operational revenue growth is anticipated at 4%.

COVID-19 product sales are forecasted at approximately $5 billion in 2026, down from $6.7 billion in 2025.

Adjusted earnings per share are expected to range from $2.80 to $3.00, lower than 2025’s $3.22, due to the effects of recent acquisitions, reduced COVID-19 revenue, and higher taxes.

Gross and operating margins are projected to remain steady, with gross margin in the mid-70% range. Adjusted R&D expenses are expected between $10.5 billion and $11.5 billion, and adjusted SI&A costs are targeted at $12.5 billion to $13.5 billion. The effective tax rate is estimated at 15%, and capital expenditures are set to slightly exceed $3 billion.

This guidance factors in the effects of MFN pricing and the drug-pricing agreement with the Trump administration.

Research and Development Pipeline

Looking ahead, Pfizer plans to initiate 20 pivotal clinical trials in 2026, including 10 for ultra-long-acting obesity treatments acquired from Metsera and four for PF-08634404, a dual PD-1/VEGF inhibitor licensed from 3SBio. The company anticipates 2026 will be a pivotal year, with significant data releases expected in both obesity and oncology programs.

Recent Estimate Trends

Over the past month, analyst estimates for Pfizer have remained largely unchanged.

VGM Score Analysis

Currently, Pfizer holds a D rating for both growth and momentum, but earns an A for value, placing it among the top value stocks. Its overall VGM Score stands at B, making it appealing for investors seeking a balanced approach.

Stock Outlook

Pfizer is rated as a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), suggesting the stock is expected to perform in line with the market over the coming months.

Industry Comparison: Johnson & Johnson

Within the large-cap pharmaceutical sector, Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) has gained 4.6% over the past month. The company’s most recent quarterly report, covering the period ending December 2025, showed revenue of $24.56 billion, up 9.1% year-over-year, and earnings per share of $2.46, compared to $2.04 a year earlier.

For the current quarter, Johnson & Johnson is projected to report earnings of $2.68 per share, a 3.3% decrease from the prior year. The consensus estimate has remained steady over the past 30 days. The stock holds a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) and a VGM Score of C.

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