Willem Middelkoop: Why the world's price discovery is now shifting to Shanghai for good

Global Financial System Undergoes Major Transformation

The international financial landscape is experiencing a profound transformation, fueled by rising tensions in the Middle East and a fundamental change in how precious metals are valued. Speaking at PDAC 2026, Willem Middelkoop, founder of the Commodity Discovery Fund, emphasized that the so-called "Big Reset" is no longer a distant prediction but is actively reshaping markets today.

Physical Silver Shortage Drives Market Shift

A tightening supply of physical silver is at the heart of this upheaval. Recent data reveals that Comex's registered silver reserves have dropped below 90 million ounces, marking a decrease of over 30% in just a few months.

Silver Price Predictions Reach New Heights

"Back in 2021, I forecasted silver reaching $100, which seemed extreme at the time," Middelkoop recalled. "Now, I believe $500 silver is within reach—a fivefold increase is entirely possible."

Collapse of Western Price Discovery Mechanisms

Middelkoop bases his outlook on a historical gold-to-silver ratio of 1:10, a relationship that dates back two millennia. As of March 5, 2026, international spot gold trades between $5,135 and $5,175 per ounce, after recently retreating from highs above $5,400. He argues that a silver price of $500 would restore this long-term average, given current gold values.

This transition is being hastened by declining trust in Western exchanges. Middelkoop pointed out that the Comex has seen several recent trading interruptions, which he attributes to delivery shortages rather than mere technical glitches.

"People no longer accept the official reasons for these halts," he said. "Comex's credibility has eroded significantly. The process of setting gold and silver prices is shifting away from Chicago and toward Shanghai."

Eastern Markets Create an "Arbitrage Vacuum"

Middelkoop highlighted that a consistent $10 to $12 premium for silver in Shanghai compared to London is drawing physical metal from Western vaults to Eastern markets. He anticipates that within a year, it will be widely recognized that price discovery has permanently shifted to the East.

At the same time, governments are reevaluating the strategic significance of silver. Middelkoop referenced a recent U.S.-Mexico agreement on critical minerals, noting that while official statements were broad, Mexico’s main contribution is silver.

"This is further evidence that authorities prefer to keep silver out of the spotlight," he remarked. "They aim to suppress the price while quietly accumulating the metal."

Systemic Risks and the Looming Debt Crisis

Looking beyond metals, Middelkoop identified an impending sovereign debt crisis as a major threat that markets are largely ignoring. He cautioned that as heavily indebted countries approach fiscal collapse, a loss of faith in fiat currencies will force a dramatic revaluation of gold and silver to restore stability.

Geopolitical instability is amplifying these dangers. As of March 5, 2026, silver trades at around $82 to $84 per ounce, reflecting sharp price swings after a naval incident in the Indian Ocean and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

"We're witnessing a dramatic power shift as the U.S. loses its grip on these markets," Middelkoop concluded. "Ultimately, it comes down to supply and demand—without enough new discoveries, prices are bound to rise."