How soon can Qatar resume operations at the world’s biggest LNG export center?

QatarEnergy Halts LNG Exports Amid Middle East Turmoil

QatarEnergy has announced a force majeure on its liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipments after operations at its Ras Laffan industrial city were disrupted by escalating conflict in the Middle East. This legal move frees the state-run company from its delivery commitments, citing circumstances beyond its control. The decision follows a near-total standstill of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a result of the ongoing U.S.-Israeli confrontation with Iran. Qatar is a major player in the LNG market, supplying about 20% of global LNG exports, with key customers in Asia—such as China, Japan, India, and South Korea—as well as Europe.

Restoring full operations at the massive LNG facility could take several months, leaving gas buyers in a difficult position. While U.S. President Donald Trump initially suggested that Operation Epic Fury would last only four to five weeks, he later stated that the campaign could continue for much longer. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu described the military action as swift and decisive, but acknowledged it may not conclude quickly.

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Escalating Tensions and Regional Impact

The Trump administration has set out four main objectives: dismantling Iran's missile and naval capabilities, preventing it from acquiring nuclear weapons, and cutting off its support for regional militant groups. In contrast to last year’s Operation Midnight Hammer, which lasted just 12 days and prompted only a symbolic reaction from Iran, the current conflict has seen a much more forceful Iranian response. Following the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran has launched widespread retaliatory strikes throughout the region.

Tehran has deployed hundreds of Shahed drones and high-speed ballistic missiles against Israel and several U.S.-aligned Gulf states, including the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, and Oman. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) declared the Strait of Hormuz closed, threatening attacks on vessels and bringing oil and gas shipments to a halt, forcing global shipping to seek alternative routes.

Restarting large LNG plants is a slow and complex process, further complicating the situation.

Ras Laffan: The Heart of Qatar’s LNG Industry

Ras Laffan Industrial City is the central hub for Qatar’s LNG sector and houses the world’s largest LNG export complex. The facility operates 14 LNG trains with a combined capacity of approximately 77 million metric tonnes per year (mtpa). Its port features six berths capable of handling the largest LNG carriers, such as QMax and QFlex vessels. Storage tanks at the site can hold around 1,880,000 cubic meters, with expansions underway to boost annual capacity to 126 million tonnes by 2027. At maximum output, storage tanks fill in just four days, meaning production must stop quickly if ships cannot depart. Once restarted, it takes about two weeks for the plant to resume full operations.

Technical Challenges in Restarting LNG Facilities

Bringing LNG plants back online is a deliberately gradual process to prevent "thermal shock" to sensitive cryogenic equipment, which operates at extremely low temperatures (-160°C or -260°F). Introducing gas too quickly can damage or rupture critical components. Each LNG train must be restarted one at a time to maintain system stability.

Global Gas Markets Face Tight Supply

The shutdown of Qatari LNG exports due to security threats in the Strait of Hormuz has created a significant supply gap in global gas markets. This has intensified competition between Atlantic and Pacific buyers, causing European (TTF) and Asian gas prices to surge by nearly 50%.

“There is no substitute for Qatari LNG. If the outage persists, the resulting shock to the gas market could surpass the 2022 crisis when Russian pipeline gas to Europe was cut off. Prices may revisit their previous record highs,” said Saul Kavonic, head of energy research at MST Marquee, in comments to Reuters.

The United States, despite being the world’s largest LNG exporter, has little spare capacity to compensate for the disruption, with only about 5% of additional volume available. Most U.S. LNG plants are running at full tilt, and their output is largely tied up in long-term contracts. However, several major LNG export projects are under construction along the Gulf Coast, aiming to boost capacity by 2030. Notable developments include Plaquemines LNG (Louisiana), Cheniere’s Corpus Christi Stage 3 (Texas), Golden Pass LNG (Texas), Rio Grande LNG (Texas), Port Arthur LNG (Texas), and the new Louisiana LNG project. Collectively, these facilities will add over 65 million tonnes per year—an increase of about 60% over current U.S. capacity.

By Alex Kimani for Oilprice.com

Further Reading from Oilprice.com

• Dozens of Asia-Flagged Oil Tankers Stranded near Strait of Hormuz
• China Halts Fuel Exports Amid Global Market Squeeze
• LNG Shipping Rates Soar 650% to $300,000 Per Day

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