Former Bank of Japan official says there is about a 50% chance of an interest rate hike in April
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Former Bank of Japan official in charge of monetary policy, Eiji Maeda, stated that even with the uncertainty brought by the Iran conflict, after the Bank of Japan kept rates unchanged in March, the probability of a rate hike in April remains about 50%. He believes the chances of a rate hike in either April or June are evenly split, but an April hike would be more prudent. Overnight swap markets show traders expect about a 60% chance of a rate hike in April. Maeda pointed out that if the Bank of Japan does not act in April, the yen may weaken further, and breaking above 160 against the US dollar would increase market risk. Currently, the yen is "quite weak," and a slight rebound would be more comfortable for businesses and households.
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