Caixin Futures Nonferrous and Precious Metals Weekly Review: Geopolitical Conflicts Dominate the Market, Aluminum Prices Remain Firm, Gold and Silver Under Pressure

(1) Shanghai Copper: Copper prices fluctuated weakly today, with the main contract price oscillating between 100,000 and 101,600 yuan/ton. On the macro front, the outbreak of geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has significantly heightened market risk aversion, prompting capital to flow into the US dollar and other traditional safe-haven assets, putting pressure on non-ferrous metals. From a fundamental perspective, the supply side remains ample due to the continuous arrival of imported goods; on the demand side, as downstream enterprises fully resume work and production, coupled with a pullback in copper prices, the recovery in consumption continues. Considering the lack of macro support, short-term price expectations are mainly for range-bound movement. (2) Shanghai Aluminum: Due to the blockade of the strait, Bahrain Aluminum declared force majeure, resulting in the inability to deliver aluminum ingots normally. In addition, Rio Tinto suspended negotiations with Japanese buyers on Q2 aluminum premiums. The expectation of overseas electrolytic aluminum plant shutdowns and supply disruptions continues to ferment, and concerns over supply gaps have led to firm Shanghai aluminum prices. The biggest risk facing aluminum prices comes from potential disruptions to the Hormuz Strait export route and raw material supply. If shipping interruptions are short-lived, the impact on prices should be limited. On the macro side, a stronger US dollar is suppressing the non-ferrous sector, but the market's focus remains on geopolitical conflict. If the conflict persists for a long time, consider buying on dips. (3) Shanghai Zinc: Zinc prices ran weakly today. On the macro front, the outbreak of geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has significantly heightened market risk aversion, prompting capital to flow into the US dollar and other traditional safe-haven assets, putting pressure on non-ferrous metals. Fundamentally, with slow recovery in consumption, social inventories have increased again, putting pressure on the upside for zinc. However, due to the situation in the Middle East, European natural gas prices have surged, so be alert to potential reductions in zinc smelting capacity. (4) Precious Metals: Gold prices ran weakly today, while silver prices fluctuated with a stronger bias. The outbreak of geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has significantly heightened market risk aversion, prompting capital to flow into the US dollar and other traditional safe-haven assets rather than gold itself, resulting in pressure on precious metals. In addition, the conflict has pushed up global inflation expectations, and the market is pessimistic about the future path of interest rate cuts, so precious metals remain under pressure. However, it is worth noting that if the conflict escalates to the point of affecting the stability of the global financial system, precious metals may regain sustained buying interest. In the short term, precious metal prices are expected to remain range-bound, while in the medium to long term, the price center may rise. (5) Lithium Carbonate: Lithium carbonate futures showed wide and violent fluctuations today, with intraday amplitude exceeding 6%. Boosted by related news in the morning session, the market once rebounded with increased open interest, but encountered resistance and fell back after rising to the dual pressure of the 5-day moving average and the 160,000 yuan/ton mark, overall showing a pattern of surging and then falling back. In the spot market, today's battery-grade lithium carbonate quotation rose by 200 yuan, quoted at 155,000 yuan/ton.