Bitcoin hit by short-termism as rally fades ahead of U.S. jobs data

Bitcoin <span class="ticker" href="$BTC</span></span><span>$70,109.57</span></span></span></span> has lost 3.7% in the past 24 hours, holding just above $70,000, while the wider CoinDesk 20 (CD20) index dropped 3.5% as momentum from the rally earlier in the week cools. Bitcoin cleared $74,000 on Wednesday and is still up more than 6% over five days.</p> <p>Illia Otychenko, lead analyst at CEX.IO, said the decline reflects selling pressure from short-term traders who bought the recovery. "Despite the recent recovery, there is still limited conviction that the rally will continue," Otychenko told CoinDesk.

Meanwhile, derivatives markets show growing pessimism. Funding rates remain deeply negative, meaning traders are paying to hold onto short positions.

But underlying demand hasn’t gone anywhere. Otychenko noted that stablecoin movements into exchanges recently reached their highest levels in 2026 while spot bitcoin ETF flows turned positive.

“This creates a clear conflict in the market. Institutional spot buyers are accumulating Bitcoin, while derivatives traders are increasing short positions,” he added. “Historically, when spot accumulation coincides with negative funding, it often ends in a short squeeze, where short sellers are forced to close positions and the price moves higher. However, that outcome is not guaranteed.”

Geopolitics remains a factor. Brent crude is up more than 22% in the past week after U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran and retaliatory attacks disrupted oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint carrying roughly 20% of global supply.

“Hormuz tanker traffic is still down 92%, Goldman is warning oil could hit $100, and the curve is flattening again as the short end reprices inflation risk with the 2Y backing up to 3.51%,” said Bryan Tan, a trader at Wintermute in a note.

The surge in energy prices is feeding inflation concerns, prompting traders to reconsider interest-rate cut expectations. Bond markets are already reflecting that shift, with U.S. Treasury yields rising as investors price in the risk that inflation will remain elevated.

And don't forget, there's also the U.S. jobs report later today, which will also feed into the Fed's interest-rate decisions. Stay !

Read more: For analysis of today's activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today

What to Watch

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's "Crypto Week Ahead".

• Crypto
  • Nothing scheduled.
• Macro
  • March 6, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. nonfarm payrolls for February Est. 59K (Prev. 130K)
  • March 6, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. unemployment rate for February Est 4.3% (Prev. 4.3%)
  • March 6, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. average hourly earnings MoM for February Est. 0.3% (Prev. 0.4%)
• Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
  • March 6: Metalpha (MATH), pre-market

Token Events

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's "Crypto Week Ahead".

• Governance votes & calls
  • No major governance votes & calls.
• Unlocks
  • March 6: Hyperliquid (HYPE) to unlock 2.72% of its circulating supply worth around $288.77 million.
• Token Launches
  • No major token launches.

Conferences

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's "Crypto Week Ahead".

• Day 3 of 3: Quant 2026 (Varese, Italy)

Market Movements