Analysis: Bitcoin may drop another 30% this year, now entering a deep bear market phase

Jinse Finance reported that CK Zheng, founder of the crypto hedge fund ZX Squared Capital, stated that bitcoin has entered a deep bear market phase. With the influence of the "four-year cycle" strengthening, the price may further decline by about 30% in 2026. Previously, bitcoin reached a historical high of over $126,000 in October 2025, about 16–18 months after the halving in April 2024, but has now fallen back to around $68,000. The trend basically aligns with the four-year cycle pattern centered on halving. Retail investors' behavior of chasing the market during periods of frenzy and selling in panic has reinforced this bear market cycle, while institutional adoption remains limited. The scale of crypto ETFs and digital asset reserve companies accounts for only about 10% of the overall market. In a bear market environment, some companies that use bitcoin as an asset reserve may be forced to sell assets due to debt repayment pressure, thereby exacerbating downward market pressure. (CoinDesk)