War intensifies, employment data impact, and Oracle's financial results: Key events to follow this week

US Markets Plunge Amid Iran Conflict and Oil Price Spike

US stocks closed the week with significant losses as escalating conflict in Iran and a sharp rise in global oil prices rattled financial markets worldwide.

Nearly every sector has been impacted, erasing the majority of gains made in 2026.

The S&P 500 dropped 1.3% on Friday, pushing its year-to-date performance to a 1.5% decline.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^) fell by about 450 points, or 1.0%, on Friday, resulting in a 1.2% loss for the year. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC), which is heavily weighted toward technology stocks, slid 1.6% on Friday and is now down approximately 3.7% since the start of the year.

The Week's Pressing Concern

Looking ahead, investors are increasingly anxious, asking: How much longer will this turmoil persist?

Goldman Sachs' head of oil research, Daan Struyven, explained that the market impact of the war is unpredictable. Each additional day of energy market disruption amplifies the negative consequences for investors.

Simultaneously, a wave of redemption freezes at major private credit funds and a disappointing monthly jobs report have further dampened confidence in the US economy’s underlying strength.

Upcoming Economic Highlights

This week, all eyes are on Wednesday’s Consumer Price Index and Friday’s personal consumption index, both of which will offer insight into inflation as oil prices soar.

Following a troubling February jobs report, investors will also closely monitor Friday’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTs) and consumer sentiment data from the University of Michigan.

On the corporate front, Oracle (ORCL) is set to report earnings on Tuesday, providing another perspective on the AI sector after Nvidia’s (NVDA) recent results failed to impress. Quarterly updates are also expected from Adobe (ADBE), Hewlett Packard (HPE), Dollar General (DG), and DICK'S Sporting Goods (DKS).

Oil Prices Surge Toward $150, Analysts Warn

The dominant market narrative last week was the Iran conflict and its dramatic effect on oil prices, which have reached their highest levels in years.

US crude oil (CL=F) recorded its largest weekly increase since at least 1985 on Friday, soaring over 36% to surpass $91 as the crisis entered its second week. Brent crude (BZ=F), the global benchmark, also saw substantial gains as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz—the world’s most vital oil shipping route—underscored its strategic importance.

Typically, about 20% of the world’s seaborne oil passes through the Strait. With shipments halted, roughly 16 million barrels are now stranded, according to Vortexa data.

With storage facilities full and no way to move oil, producers have started to scale back output. This has created a severe supply shortage, prompting countries like China to stockpile oil and driving up prices for near-term delivery contracts.

Experts caution that prices will keep rising unless oil shipments resume soon.

Vikas Dwivedi, global energy strategist at Macquarie, warned, “If there’s no agreement and hostilities don’t end quickly, the crude market could collapse within days. Our analysis suggests that a few weeks of closure at Hormuz could trigger a chain reaction, pushing oil prices to $150 or beyond.”

Indian Muslims hold photographs of late Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei during a protest against the U.S. and Israel in Hyderabad, India, Friday, March 6, 2026. (AP Photo/Mahesh Kumar A.) · ASSOCIATED PRESS

Oil’s Role in Driving Inflation

Oil is a fundamental component in the global economy, influencing everything from manufacturing and agriculture to transportation. When oil prices climb, costs rise across the board.

Mary Daly, president of the San Francisco Fed, said, “The oil price shock, depending on its duration, is a real concern.”

This situation is a major challenge for the Federal Reserve, which has paused its rate-cutting efforts after battling post-pandemic inflation. Ten-year Treasury yields (^TNX) have risen above 4.14%, and expectations for rate cuts have diminished as traders worry that higher oil prices could stall progress toward the Fed’s 2% inflation target.

Policymakers now face the question: How much and for how long will sustained high oil prices fuel inflation? Goldman Sachs estimates that if oil remains elevated for several months, annual headline inflation could temporarily approach 3%.

Historically, the Fed has often looked past short-term supply shocks, especially when they mainly affect headline inflation. Regional Fed leaders, including Neel Kashkari and John Williams, have indicated it’s too soon to gauge the long-term impact of rising oil prices.

However, if energy costs continue to push up core inflation or inflation expectations, the Fed may find it difficult to justify lowering rates in the near future.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks during a press conference following the Federal Open Markets Committee meeting at the Federal Reserve on January 28, 2026, in Washington, D.C. (Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images) · Kevin Dietsch via Getty Images

Labor Market Faces New Headwinds

While rising energy prices complicate the Fed’s job, a disappointing jobs report has added to policymakers’ worries.

The US economy lost 92,000 jobs in February, falling far short of economists’ forecasts for a gain of 55,000 jobs. This setback has reignited concerns about the impact of artificial intelligence on employment.

The unemployment rate edged up from 4.3% in January to 4.4%, defying expectations for stability.

Gina Bolvin, president of Bolvin Wealth Management Group, sees evidence of AI’s growing influence, describing “a split market—slower overall growth alongside rapid technological change.”

Peter Graf of Amova Asset Management Americas called the report “a bracing splash of cold water for investors who believed the US economy could weather both the AI revolution and unpredictable government policies.”

Supporting this view, Jack Dorsey’s Block (XYZ) announced in February that it would cut about 4,000 jobs, or 40% of its workforce. Block’s CFO Amrita Ahuja confirmed that AI was behind the layoffs.

Some economists argue the jobs data may not be as dire as it appears. They point to factors like a major labor strike at Kaiser Permanente, which eliminated 37,000 jobs in physicians’ offices, as contributing to the weak numbers.

Andrew Husby, an economist at BNP Paribas, suggested the swings in January and February should be viewed as outliers caused by “special factors.”

Still, doubts remain about the true strength of the labor market, despite optimism from the White House and some Fed officials.

Job seekers listen for information on employment during a hiring fair at Fair Park in Dallas, Wednesday, Jan. 14, 2026. (AP Photo/LM Otero) · ASSOCIATED PRESS

Key Economic and Earnings Events This Week

Monday

• Economic data: New York Fed 1-year inflation expectations for February (previous: 3.09%)
• Earnings: Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE), Casey's General Stores (CASY), South Bow Corporation (SOBO), Vail Resorts (MTN), BETA Technologies (BETA)

Tuesday

• Economic data: NFIB small business optimism for February (expected: 99.6, previous: 99.3); ADP weekly employment change (previous: +12,750); Existing home sales, month-on-month for February (expected: -1.2%, previous: -8.4%)
• Earnings: Oracle (ORCL), Franco-Nevada (FNV), Ferguson Enterprises (FERG), BioNTech (BNTX), NIO Inc. (NIO), New Gold (NGD), Uranium Energy (UEC), Firefly Aerospace (FLY)

Wednesday

• Economic data: CPI for February (expected: +0.2% month-on-month, previous: +0.2%); Core CPI (expected: +0.3% month-on-month, previous: +0.3%); CPI year-on-year (expected: +2.5%, previous: +2.4%); Core CPI year-on-year (expected: +2.4%, previous: +2.5%); Real average hourly earnings year-on-year (previous: +1.2%); Real average weekly earnings year-on-year (previous: +1.9%); MBA mortgage applications (previous: +11%)
• Earnings: Harmony Gold Mining (HMY), Campbell's (CPB), Descartes Systems Group (DSGX), Wealthfront (WLTH)

Thursday

• Economic data: Initial jobless claims (previous: 213,000); Continuing claims (previous: 1.86 million); Housing starts for January (expected: -4.6%, previous: +6.2%); Imports for January (previous: +3.6%); Exports for January (previous: -1.7%)
• Earnings: Adobe (ADBE), Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM), Dollar General (DG), Ulta Beauty (ULTA), Lennar (LEN), Futu Holdings (FUTU), DICK'S Sporting Goods (DKS), Li Auto (LI), Rubrik (RBRK), Full Truck Alliance (YMM), SentinelOne (S), National Beverage (FIZZ), Hub Group (HUBG), Maze Therapeutics (MAZE)

Friday

• Economic data: PCE price index for January (expected: +0.3% month-on-month, previous: +0.4%); PCE price index year-on-year (expected: +2.9%, previous: +2.9%); Core PCE price index month-on-month (expected: +0.4%, previous: +0.4%); Core PCE price index year-on-year (expected: +3.1%, previous: +3%); Personal income (expected: +0.5%, previous: +0.3%); Personal spending (expected: +0.3%, previous: +0.4%); Durable goods orders preliminary (expected: +0.4%, previous: -1.4%); GDP annualized Q4 (expected: 1.4%, previous: 1.4%); JOLTS job openings rate (previous: +3.9%); JOLTS quits rate (previous: +2%); JOLTS layoffs rate (previous: +1.1%); University of Michigan sentiment preliminary (expected: 56.3, previous: 56.6); U. Mich. current conditions (previous: 56.6); U. Mich. expectations (previous: 56.6); U. Mich. 1-year inflation (previous: +3.4%); U. Mich. 5-10 year inflation (previous: +3.3%)
• Earnings: VEON (VEON), RLX Technology (RLX)