Goldman Sachs strategists stated in a report that the oil price shock has caused the interest rate market to suddenly shift and start trading according to hawkish policy dimensions.
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They stated that the overall risk outlook for rising inflation has outweighed concerns about growth, while the reemergence of supply-side volatility has weakened the previously resurfacing value of duration hedging. "Although last Friday's weak (U.S.) employment report brought some renewed support to the front end of the curve, the market's reaction to the weaker-than-expected data was noticeably muted." The strategists noted that despite the volatility in movements, the absolute level of the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is not unreasonable, and the longer-term forward rates remain generally appropriate and are consistent with cross-country long-term growth expectations.
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