Analysis: Middle East conflict drives institutional return to the crypto market, bitcoin outperforms gold and US stocks

As tensions in the Middle East escalate and impact global markets, bitcoin has recently outperformed traditional assets. Data shows that since the outbreak of the Iran-related conflict, bitcoin has risen by about 3.5% to around $68,000, while Gold has dropped by about 5%, Silver has fallen by about 12%, and the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 have also declined by about 1% and 1.5% respectively. Market analysis suggests that bitcoin's recent rebound is related to the deleveraging in the derivatives market.

Data indicates that the open interest in bitcoin-denominated futures has decreased, and the perpetual contract funding rate remains at a negative value of around -3.5%, indicating that short positions are still crowded. Meanwhile, a "certain exchange premium" has reappeared, and with continued net inflows into spot ETFs, it suggests that U.S. institutional investors may be viewing the current price range as a new opportunity to build positions. On the macro front, driven by geopolitical conflict, WTI crude oil once rose to about $116 per barrel, then retreated to around $100 as the G7 signaled expectations of releasing strategic reserves; the U.S. Dollar Index rose to about 99, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield increased from around 4% to about 4.2%.