Analysis: If the US-Iran conflict lasts for several months, war spending and debt expansion may benefit bitcoin

According to Odaily, macro strategist Mark Connors stated that if the conflict between the United States and Iran lasts for several months, the increased fiscal spending, debt expansion, and declining interest rates brought about by war could create a favorable environment for Bitcoin. This is because wars are typically financed by issuing more government bonds, which increases the supply of US dollars in the financial system, thereby weakening the value of existing currency and benefiting non-dollar assets such as Bitcoin.

Since mid-2025, the annualized growth rate of US federal debt has been about 14%. If this trend continues, the scale of debt may continue to grow year-on-year by about 15%. This ongoing debt expansion is essentially a form of "monetary dilution," which has historically been favorable for Bitcoin's performance. Since the United States first launched strikes against Iran, the price of Bitcoin has risen by approximately 3.6%. As US government debt increases and relies more on short-term Treasury financing, policymakers may be more inclined to lower interest rates in the future to reduce interest burdens. In an environment of "declining interest rates + continued debt expansion," liquidity typically improves, which is the kind of macro backdrop in which Bitcoin has historically performed strongly. (CoinDesk)