Canada: February labor market likely to see slight recovery – NBC

Canadian Employment Expected to Rebound, but Jobless Rate May Climb

Economists Alexandra Ducharme and Jocelyn Paquet from the National Bank of Canada anticipate that February's Labour Force Survey will reveal a modest increase of 10,000 jobs, following a drop in employment in January. However, they predict the unemployment rate will edge up to 6.7%, as the participation rate is likely to rise to 65.2%.

Labour Market Outlook

Although employment is projected to recover with a gain of 10,000 positions, the jobless rate may still move higher. This uptick is attributed to a rebound in the participation rate, which had previously fallen by 0.4 percentage points at the start of the year but is now expected to reach 65.2%.

Trade and Manufacturing Insights

This week will also see the release of January's merchandise trade figures. Higher prices for key commodities, especially gold, are expected to have boosted exports. Coupled with a decrease in imports, this could narrow the trade deficit to C$0.25 billion.

Meanwhile, manufacturing sales are forecast to have dropped by 3.3% in January, largely due to significant declines in the transportation equipment and machinery sectors.

(This report was produced with assistance from AI technology and subsequently reviewed by an editor.)