Huatai Securities: High oil prices amid US-Israel-Iran conflict may drive up electricity prices

According to Golden Ten Data on March 10, under the conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran, global oil prices have risen sharply, driving up overseas coal prices. Based on expectations, by 2026, the price center of 5,500 kcal thermal coal at North Port in China will move up to around 750 yuan/ton. Calculations show that if the port price of 5,500 kcal thermal coal rises by 50 yuan/ton (including tax), wholesale electricity prices on the energy side will increase by 2.9% due to energy price transmission, corresponding to an increase in industrial electricity prices of 2.0%—2.2%. The increase in AIDC green electricity demand brought by Token going overseas is expected to push up the price of green certificates. Currently, the price of green certificates is only 9% of the carbon price. If the price of green certificates rises to be on par with the carbon price, wholesale electricity prices will increase by 15%, and industrial electricity prices will increase by 10%—11%. The market-oriented electricity price increase brought by rising coal prices is more favorable to clean energy with stable costs. At the same time, it is recommended to focus on more stable coal-power joint operation companies.