As bombs fall, gold prices rise — and Poland is taking notice

Central banks have been accumulating gold at record levels for four consecutive years, with institutions from the ECB to those in China and India to diversify reserves and reduce dollar exposure amid deepening geopolitical fragmentation.

According to Pawel Mazurek, this should be a signal to private investors:

"Private investors are not so much copying, but... I think they are taking a good example from central banks, because the physical gold that is being bought by central banks is to hedge sovereign finances."

"So since central banks are making such large purchases and keeping large stockpiles of physical gold, it is a signal that individual investors should also consider securing their private wealth in physical bullion."

Changing investor awareness

Patrice Mesnier, founder of Oldenburg Capital Partners in Luxembourg, sees the current demand as more than a reaction to headlines.

"The immediate reaction is predictable: when there is a major geopolitical rupture, private buyers reach for coins and bars. What distinguishes the current moment is the persistence of this demand," he explained to Euronews.

Mesnier argues that retail demand had been building for months before the latest escalation, driven by something more than defensive instinct.

"Buying is no longer purely defensive. Investors increasingly understand that the scarcity of gold is fixed, while the supply of fiat money is volatile and reactive, and this shift in awareness does not disappear as soon as the headlines go quiet."

He locates the deeper shift in a slow erosion of confidence in dollar-denominated assets, compounded by the inflationary drag of prolonged geopolitical fragmentation.

"Gold retains a stable intrinsic value precisely because its production cannot increase significantly," he said, adding that above-ground reserves are vast while in-ground deposits remain limited — a fundamental reality the current crisis does nothing to alter.

The advantages of physical gold

Aneta Mazurek of the Mazovia Mint points first to mobility.

When Ukrainians fled in 2022, she notes, they could only take what fit in a pocket or suitcase and gold, unlike property, art or vehicles, can be carried out in an emergency.

The second advantage is fiscal. Under EU law, the supply, intra-Community acquisition and import of investment gold are exempt from VAT.

Thirdly, global liquidity:

"Gold can actually be sold all over the world for any currency. It's very liquid. So actually, when it comes to buying it is very simple, because you just have to have the money and pay for it. And when it comes to selling it is exactly the same. Gold is always in demand."

Mazurek adds that gold is easily divisible — available in formats such as combibars, which are scored like chocolate — and straightforward to store. "A kilogram, she notes, worth around £600,000, is roughly the size of a smartphone."

The price of gold ended 2025 at around $4,000 per ounce, rising as high as $5,500 in January 2026.

This spike was driven not only by geopolitics but also by the inflation crisis.

Forecasts for the end of 2026 from analysts at institutions such as JP Morgan, Wells Fargo, UBS, CIBC, Deutsche Bank and Société Générale even point to levels in excess of $6,000.